Summary
On Feb. 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, eight years after it seized Crimea and backed separatist forces in the Donbas. Ukrainian forces defeated the assault on Kyiv and retook large areas in the war’s first year, but the conflict then settled into a war of attrition. Russia now controls about 19 percent of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea.
In 2026, the war’s momentum shifted. Russia took Pokrovsk and Huliaipole in January, but a Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in February pushed Russian forces back, and Russian gains have since slowed to a crawl. Both sides have escalated a long-range strike war. Russia has battered Ukraine’s power grid, rail, and industry, while Ukrainian drones and missiles have knocked out a large share of Russia’s oil-refining capacity.
U.S.-led peace talks produced a 28-point plan in November 2025 and several rounds of negotiations but stalled in March 2026 after the United States and Israel went to war with Iran. In September, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv in attempts to restart talks, and Washington has proposed trilateral technical talks.
Key Takeaways
- Russia holds about one-fifth of Ukraine, but its advances have nearly stalled in 2026. Western estimates put Russian casualties at 1.4 million killed, wounded, or missing.
- Ukraine has contested the battlefield initiative in 2026 for the first time since its 2024 Kursk incursion, a success credited largely to its advantage in drone warfare. Manpower remains its greatest vulnerability.
- The war has become a contest of endurance between economies. Russian strikes target Ukraine’s energy grid, rail, and industry. Ukrainian strikes target Russian refineries, export terminals, and tankers.
- Europe now provides most of Ukraine’s financial and military support, while the United States focuses on mediation and selling weapons that allies buy for Kyiv.
- The war has deepened cooperation among Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran and is reshaping how militaries worldwide think about drones, air defense, and mass.
- After an eight-month pause during the U.S. war with Iran, Russia has agreed in principle to resume U.S.-led three-way talks in November, but the core disputes over territory and security guarantees are unresolved.
Table of Contents
- Historical Background
- Regional Implications
- Global Implications
- What Analysts Debate
- What Ukrainians Debate
- FAQs
- Additional War on the Rocks Resources
Historical Background
Ukraine became independent when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, it gave up the nuclear arsenal it had inherited in exchange for security assurances from Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. For two decades, Kyiv balanced between Moscow and the West. Moscow opposed NATO’s eastward expansion, and Russian leaders have long argued that the West broke promises about it — a claim many historians dispute.
Crimea, the Donbas, and the Road to Invasion
The turning point came in 2014. After the Euromaidan protests ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, Russia seized and annexed Crimea and backed separatist forces in the eastern Donbas, waging what Lawrence Freedman called a limited war. The Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015 froze the fighting without resolving it, and some analysts warned that implementing them on Moscow’s terms could destabilize Ukraine from within. In 2021, Russia amassed troops on Ukraine’s borders and demanded guarantees that NATO would halt its expansion, a wager that coercion would force Western concessions.
The Full-Scale Invasion Since 2022
Russia’s multifront assault aimed to topple the government in Kyiv. Ukrainian resistance, including the battle for Hostomel Airport, defeated the attack on the capital, and Russian forces withdrew from the north by early April 2022. That fall, Ukraine’s Kharkiv counteroffensive and the recapture of Kherson reversed Russian gains, even as Moscow declared the annexation of four Ukrainian regions and announced a partial mobilization.
The war then hardened into attrition. Russia took Bakhmut in May 2023 after months of fighting led by the Wagner Group, whose leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, staged a brief mutiny weeks later. Ukraine’s summer 2023 counteroffensive failed to break through Russia’s layered defenses. In 2024, Russia captured Avdiivka and pressed west, while Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. By 2025, drones dominated the battlefield, and Ukraine struck deep inside Russia, including the June 2025 attack on Russian bomber bases.
The War in 2026
Russia’s main objective remains seizing the rest of Donetsk Oblast, including the “fortress belt” of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka. Russian forces took Pokrovsk and Huliaipole in January 2026, but a Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in February marked a turning point. Ukraine’s use of drones at all ranges has since put Russia on the back foot, and Russian infiltration tactics across a vast kill zone have produced diminishing returns.
Manpower is the critical variable at present. Russia has expanded its forces, and Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russian generals have asked Russian President Vladimir Putin for 800,000 more troops, while Ukraine continues to struggle with recruitment and rotation. Behind the front lines, the air war has intensified: Russia launches daily drone and missile waves at Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, while Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign has cut Russian refining capacity by an estimated 25 to 30 percent.
Peace Talks
In 2022, early talks in Belarus and Turkey collapsed. After returning to office in 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced ending the war as a priority, but Russia kept resisting diplomatic efforts through an August 2025 Trump-Putin summit in Alaska that left security guarantees unresolved. In November 2025, a 28-point U.S.-Russian draft plan would have capped Ukraine’s armed forces, barred NATO membership, and recognized Russian control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Kyiv and European capitals objected, and talks in Geneva produced a revised framework. Three rounds of trilateral talks in early 2026 brought no breakthrough before the Iran war paused diplomacy.
Talks resumed in September 2026, when U.S. envoys met separately with the Kremlin and Kyiv, but Moscow gave no sign of softening its territorial demands and rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s offer to meet Putin at the G20 summit in December. Washington is now pressing both sides to halt strikes on energy facilities ahead of proposed trilateral talks.
Regional Implications
The war has upended Europe’s security order. Finland and Sweden abandoned decades of nonalignment to join NATO, prompting debate over how Russia will respond to that expansion once the war ends. At NATO’s 2025 summit in The Hague, allies pledged to boost defense spending, though it is unclear how durable public support for that spending will be. Germany, for example, long reluctant to spend heavily on defense, has rethought its security policy, though its old Ostpolitik instincts persist in new forms.
Europe now carries most of the cost of supporting Ukraine and is transforming its defense and security policy to match. In December 2025, E.U. leaders agreed to a 90 billion euros interest-free loan for 2026 and 2027 after Belgium blocked a plan to lend against the roughly 210 billion euros in frozen Russian central bank assets — something some analysts had long argued for. Hungary’s April 2026 election ended former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s rule, removing one of the European Union’s main internal obstacles to aid for Kyiv. European governments are also debating a postwar reassurance force, where political will rather than troop numbers may be the binding constraint.
The Baltic states sit on the front line of any wider confrontation. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania all border Russia or Belarus. The region faces constant pressure that falls below the threshold of war, including GPS jamming, sabotage attempts, and cyber attacks. In 2026, stray drones from Ukraine’s strikes on Russian Baltic ports crashed in all three countries, and Moscow accused them of letting Ukraine use their airspace, which they deny. Russia has also flown drones into Baltic airspace on multiple occasions, a move many analysts interpret as testing NATO’s response and resolve.
Ukraine’s neighbors face direct spillover. Belarus remains a platform for Russian forces and has drawn closer to Iran. Moldova, with Russian troops in its breakaway Transnistria region, remains vulnerable to Russian pressure. In the Black Sea, Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s fleet pushed it from the western sea and reopened grain exports, and Ukraine is now hitting Russian oil tankers there. Turkey has balanced between Moscow and the West throughout, while the war has pushed states such as Armenia to distance themselves from Russia.
Global Implications
For the United States, the war tests the credibility of American commitments. Under the Biden administration, Washington was Ukraine’s largest military backer. Since 2025, it has largely stopped providing new weapons directly, instead selling them to European allies who then pass them to Ukraine, while pushing its own peace plans. Analysts have long debated whetherAmerica’s Indo-Pacific strategy runs through Ukraine, and that debate shapes how much Washington is willing to invest. Looking further ahead, U.S. officials will have to decide what relations with a postwar Russia should look like.
The war has drawn U.S. adversaries closer together. North Korea has sent troops, artillery shells, and ballistic missiles to Russia, and their troops are gaining combat experience alongside Russian soldiers. China has become Russia’s indispensable economic partner and has treated the war as a battle lab for a possible conflict over Taiwan. Iranian weapons, especially Shahed drones, have shaped Russia’s air campaign, and Western analysts accuse Russia of helping Iran target the U.S. military.
The war in Iran has reshaped the war in Ukraine. It diverted attention and air defense resources, paused peace talks, and is beginning to shape the battlefield. Higher oil prices and the suspension of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil have benefited Moscow. Ukraine, in turn, offered its counter-drone expertise to Gulf states seeking protection from Iranian attacks.
Russian nuclear threats and the collapse of U.S.-Russian arms control have raised concerns about escalation, and European governments are rethinking nuclear deterrence. Militaries worldwide are studying Ukraine’s battlefield, where drone assault, electronic warfare, and uncrewed systems are changing how wars are fought, though some military analysts warn that Ukraineisn’t a simple model for others to copy.
What Analysts Debate
A central question of debate is who holds the advantage. Some analysts argue that Russia’s stalled gains and refinery losses show its offensive power is eroding. Others warn that Russia can afford to take a beating, relying on a shadow military to sustain the fight, and is expanding its forces in ways that could restore its momentum. A long-running and related debate asks whether Putin is an inept strategist or a far better one than critics think.
Analysts also disagree on how the war should end. Some argue that Ukraine faces a daunting choice between territory and future security, and that armed neutrality is the least bad option for NATO. Others counter that rewarding aggression invites Russia to rearm and attack again. Debate over what would make any deal hold centers on security guarantees, a European reassurance force, and whether Moscow would accept any of them.
There is further debate over whether deep strikes can substitute for the manpower Ukraine lacks, and over what command and political decisions in Moscow and Kyiv mean for the war’s course. Finally, militaries are debating which lessons from Ukraine’s battlefield will apply to future wars, from drone-enabled maneuver to defense innovation.
What Ukrainians Debate
Inside Ukraine, the sharpest debate is over how the war should end. Ukrainian commentators often frame every decision around two questions: How will this decision benefit Ukraine, and how will this decision benefit Russia? Most Ukrainians support talks: In a September 2026 poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 75 percent said they were open to negotiations. Openness to talks, however, is not openness to concessions. In an August 2026 poll by the institute, 60 percent opposed ceding the Donbas to Russia, while the same share would accept freezing the war along the current front line in exchange for security guarantees — the daunting tradeoff between land and future security.
Military leadership and mobilization are also sources of tension. In July 2026, popular Defense Minister Fedorov’s ouster shook Ukraine, and the country’s top general was also replaced. Ukrainians debate how to fix a draft system widely seen as coercive and corrupt, how to guarantee demobilization for those who have served since 2022, and how internal political choices in Kyiv shape the war effort.
Corruption and the rule of law remain politically explosive. In July 2025, street protests forced the government to reverse a law curbing the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies. Months later, those agencies exposed a $100 million scheme at the state nuclear company Energoatom. The exposure led to the dismissal of two ministers, and in September 2026, parliament dismissed the prosecutor general after a clash with anti-corruption investigators. These scandals feed what some authors have called Zelensky’s perception problem abroad, and Ukrainians see them as tests of whether wartime governance can meet E.U. standards.
Finally, Ukrainians debate when and how to hold elections. The constitution bars elections under martial law, and parliament has pledged to hold them once the war ends. Russia and the 28-point plan pushed for quick elections, but only 10 percent of Ukrainians supported holding elections before a ceasefire, according to a January 2026 poll by the institute.
FAQs
Why did Russia invade Ukraine?
Moscow has cited NATO expansion, the protection of Russian speakers, and the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine as reasons for the invasion. Most Western analysts see the invasion as an effort to end Ukraine’s independent, Western-leaning course and restore Russian control over land Putin regards as historically Russian.
How is the 2022 invasion different from the 2014 conflict?
In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and backed a separatist war in parts of the Donbas while denying direct involvement, using hybrid warfare tactics. In 2022, it launched an open, full-scale invasion from multiple directions aimed at taking Kyiv, turning a regional conflict into the largest war in Europe since 1945.
How much of Ukraine does Russia control?
Russia currently controls about 19 percent of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea and the parts of the Donbas seized before 2022. Russia claims four Ukrainian regions as its own but does not fully control Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, or Kherson. The battle for Donetsk remains the war’s central front.
Is there a ceasefire or peace deal?
No. U.S.-led talks resumed in September 2026, and trilateral technical talks have been proposed. Territory and security guarantees remain the main sticking points. There have been several brief attempts at ceasefires, from the Minsk agreements in 2014 and 2015 to short holiday truces and limited deals covering energy infrastructure, most recently an “energy ceasefire” Trump announced in October 2026. None has lasted, however, and there has been no comprehensive ceasefire agreement since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
How many casualties has the war caused?
Exact figures are unknown. The United Nations has recorded more than 17,000 civilian deaths, and Western estimates put combined military casualties on both sides at well over 1.4 million killed and wounded. War on the Rocks has examined the personnel costs of Russia’s war in depth.
Is the United States still supporting Ukraine?
Yes, but differently than it did in previous years. Washington now leads peace mediation and sells weapons that European allies buy for Ukraine, while Europe provides most direct financial and military aid.
How has the war in Iran affected the war in Ukraine?
It paused U.S.-led peace talks for eight months, diverted Western attention and air defense resources, and raised oil prices in ways that benefited Russia. Ukraine has used the moment to offer its counter-drone expertise to Gulf states.
Additional War on the Rocks Resources
The Russia Contingency with Mike Kofman (Members Only)
The Ukraine Compass by Nicole Wiley (Members Only)
Commentary:
- The West Is Thinking Too Small About Ukraine’s Victory by Alanna Novetsky
- March Separately, Strike Combined: Rethinking Mass and Maneuver on the Transparent Battlefield by Randy Noorman
- Seoul Needs a Playbook for Hormuz, Ukraine, and What Comes Next by Jun-seok Lee and Donghyeon Kim
- The Strange Transformation of the Front Line in Ukraine by Édouard Maurin
- Ukraine’s Ground Robots and the Economics of Survival by Lesia Bidochko
- Russia’s Next Top General: Promotions in Russian Military Leadership by Dmitry Gorenburg, Julian G. Waller, Gabriela I. Rosa-Hernandez and Cornell Overfield
- Managed Instability: Why the Wars Against Iran and Ukraine Can Go On and On and On… by Alex Kolbin
Podcasts:
- Command and Politics in the War Between Moscow and Kyiv with Dara Massicot, Mike Kofman, and Ryan Evans
- How Ukraine Put Russia on the Backfoot with Dara Massicot, Mike Kofman, and Ryan Evans
