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Immediate Russia-Ukraine Crisis Seems Over … For Now

April 29, 2021

Episode Notes:

When Michael Kofman joined the Warcast last week, I asked him whether Russia would invade Ukraine by May 1. Russia had deployed 100,000 troops to the Ukrainian border in the past month, and things were not looking good. Kofman agreed the situation was tense, but put the odds of an invasion at 20 percent, and argued that what Russia was doing was most likely a display of coercive diplomacy.

Well, it seems that he was right. Russian Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu last week ordered a partial redeployment of some of those troops, signaling a de-escalation. The order came a day after Vladmir Putin gave an annual address to the nation, in which he identified a long list of grievances with the West. The immediate crisis in Eastern Europe seems to be over for now.

Michael Kofman — a senior research scientist at CNA and a senior fellow at CNAS — rejoins the Warcast to give us some perspective on the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and what we should and shouldn’t takeaway from this episode.

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