What's Going On in Venezuela?

Last Updated Nov. 2, 2026

At the beginning of this year, the United States crossed a decisive threshold in its long confrontation with Venezuela. After months of military buildup in the southern Caribbean — including deploying an aircraft carrier strike group — and lethal strikes on suspected narco-trafficking vessels, U.S. forces conducted an operation on Jan. 3, 2026, that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, abruptly ending the dictator’s rule, but leaving the rest of the regime largely intact.

Washington framed the operation as the culmination of a pressure campaign against transnational criminal networks embedded within the Venezuelan state and as an opportunity to gain access to the country’s natural resources. But Maduro’s removal shifted the central question from escalation to aftermath, focusing on how the United States intends to manage potential political transition, security, and legitimacy in a country already afflicted by economic collapse, mass emigration, and armed non-state actors.

For regional governments, U.S. allies, and strategic competitors alike, attention has now turned to what comes next in Venezuela and the Western Hemisphere more broadly. Venezuela’s economic recovery was abruptly tested in June, when a devastating earthquake killed more than 230 people. On Aug. 28, the Trump administration struck a deal to partner with the Venezuelan oil company North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), at a time when the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest point in four decades. The key players involved in the deal — namely Alejandro Betancourt, the Venezuelan businessman who owns North American Blue Energy Partners and has faced past U.S. scrutiny over his ties to the oil sector, and Delcy Rodríguez, an unelected interim president negotiating on Venezuela’s behalf — have left many skeptical about the deal’s long-term durability.

Image: Eneas De Troya via Wikimedia Commons

Key Takeaways

Since Maduro’s fall at the beginning of this year, his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, has been elevated to acting president of Venezuela, with other key regime figures also remaining in place.
Investments focused on rebuilding Venezuela’s energy sector are now underway. NABEP, owned by Alejandro Betancourt, is at the center of development, with the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital striking a deal with the company to take a 35 percent equity stake.
Lethal boat strikes have continued throughout the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, with the newly activated Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere replacing Operation Southern Spear. U.S. Congress members and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights have continued to question the legality of killing suspects at sea rather than detaining them.
A devastating earthquake struck Venezuela on June 25, killing over 230 people and prompting American-military-linked assistance.

Historical Background & U.S. Policy

U.S.-Venezuelan relations have deteriorated since former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s rise in 1999 and Maduro’s consolidation of power since 2013. Over the past decade, Maduro oversaw deeply contested elections in 2018 and 2024, further dismantled democratic institutions, and presided over economic collapse and mass emigration.

For years, the United States has imposed targeted sanctions on Venezuelan officials and state-linked entities — steadily expanding them in response to democratic backsliding, corruption, and human rights abuses — and stopped recognizing Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate president in 2019, instead backing opposition leaders who claimed to have won disputed elections.

In 2025, Washington designated the so-called “Cartel of the Suns,” purportedly led by Maduro, and Tren de Aragua as foreign terrorist organizations and placed renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere as a strategic priority — from Greenland to Argentina — amid growing Chinese and Russian influence in the region.

U.S. Operation in Venezuela

The Maduro operation in Caracas followed months of heightened tensions between Washington and Caracas.

Since August 2025, the United States has maintained air, naval, intelligence, and special operations assets in the region, supported by existing bases in Puerto Rico and Guantánamo Bay, and expanded access agreements with regional partners.

In October 2025, President Donald Trump authorized CIA operations inside Venezuela, increasingly hinted at possible land strikes, and imposed a partial blockade on sanctioned oil tankers leaving the country.

After Maduro did not take potential off-ramps, U.S. forces struck military targets and captured the dictator and his wife in a stunning nighttime raid that exhibited cyber, intelligence, and operational dominance in a mission designed to seize the leader while avoiding large-scale ground combat.

Venezuela After Maduro

Maduro’s removal largely left the remainder of Venezuelan leadership untouched. While Caracas initially tried to project resolve, Delcy Rodríguez has since fully consolidated power as interim president. In April 2026, Washington lifted the personal sanctions it had held against her since 2018. Months later, in August, Rodríguez played a pivotal role in the major bilateral oil agreement alongside U.S. officials.

The military and security services have held together behind Rodríguez rather than fracturing. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello remain central figures in Venezuela’s political and military apparatus, and no major splits have emerged. The civil-military elite coalition Washington was counting on for near-term stability has largely proven durable.

The state’s capacity was tested more directly by the devastating June 25 earthquake, which killed over 230 people and drew in U.S. military and humanitarian assistance. Washington has maintained its logic from January, which focuses less on regime change and instead prioritizes crisis containment. On Oct. 25, opposition leader María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela after months in exile. Machado’s return could be a catalyst for democratic elections, putting pressure on Trump’s interim government. Still, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has indicated that any transition must first pass through phases of economic recovery, with no clear timeline for elections.

Drug-Trafficking, Sanctions, and Regime Pressure

Washington links its ongoing military activity to Venezuelan elites’ alleged involvement in narco-trafficking, particularly Tren de Aragua and the Cartel of the Suns — though experts continue to argue they are not formal organizations like cartels in Colombia and Mexico. Experts have questioned the legal elasticity of that framework, particularly as it expanded from financial measures to kinetic action.

Since Maduro’s removal, that framework has grown more contested. What began as sanctions and interdiction aimed at cutting illicit revenue has expanded into lethal military action: As of late September 2026, U.S. forces have killed more than 240 people in nearly 70 strikes on alleged smuggling vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, according to CBS News. Unresolved questions remain about precedent and the boundaries between counter-narcotics, counter-terrorism, foreign intervention, and what comes next.

Washington followed through on sanctions relief far beyond what was initially indicated, culminating in the aforementioned Aug. 28 deal.

Regional and International Implications

Despite its questionable legality, the intervention initially generated some cautious optimism throughout the region that Maduro’s fall could spell the end to a brutal regime notorious for its repression and mismanagement — potentially allowing for democratization. Several months later, optimism has faded: The same authoritarian structure remains in place under Rodríguez, who has developed a transactional relationship with Washington. With the authoritarian regime still in place, many question Washington’s endgame and whether Venezuela’s stabilizing economy and persistent migration outflows will improve without more significant change in leadership and policies.

Regional governments were largely shocked by the U.S. operation — though reactions varied widely — and subsequent comments by Trump suggesting that the United States might take action against other countries in the region raised alarm from Greenland to Cuba and beyond. Strategically, the operation also forced China, Russia, and Iran to reassess their posture in the hemisphere and the durability of their partnerships with authoritarian governments that are at odds with Washington.

What Analysts Debate

With Maduro removed and Rodríguez now governing with Washington’s backing, the debate has shifted from whether an end state would emerge to what it actually looks like: A deepening economic and security partnership with the existing regime rather than a democratic transition. The August oil deal and normalized ties with Rodríguez suggest that Washington has settled, at least for now, on prioritizing stability and access over political change.

Key questions also persist regarding the legality of the operation, long-term strategy, and future U.S. activity in the region.

FAQs

Why did the United States capture Maduro?

The Trump administration argued that transnational criminal organizations were embedded within the Venezuelan state and that pressure short of force had failed to produce change. Maduro’s capture marked the culmination of that strategy as well as a more active and aggressive U.S. national security strategy in the Western Hemisphere.

Is the United States occupying Venezuela?

No. The naval blockade imposed after Maduro’s capture was lifted earlier in 2026. Washington has instead pursued a partnership model with Rodríguez’s government, culminating in the August oil deal. Questions remain less about occupation than about how far this economic and security entanglement will deepen.

Who rules Venezuela now?

Maduro’s vice president, Rodríguez, has fully consolidated power as acting president. She has maintained the loyalty of the military and security services and built a working relationship with Washington. Opposition leader María Corina Machado remains sidelined, although she was recently allowed to return to the country.

What happened to U.S. sanctions and Venezuelan oil?

Most Venezuela sanctions have been substantially eased through 2026. On the oil front, the Pentagon now holds a 35 percent equity stake in North American Blue Energy Partners, which received 100-year concessions on fields holding roughly 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan crude.