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In 2021, Julian Spencer-Churchill wrote “Embrace the Arms Race in Asia,” where he argued that an arms race in Asia was a constructive dynamic that would ward off conflict. Four years on, with numerous developments in the Indo-Pacific and around the world, we asked him to reassess his argument.Image: Petty Officer 3rd Class Ethan MorrowIn 2021, you wrote “Embrace the Arms Race in Asia,” arguing that, contrary to conventional wisdom, an arms race in the Indo-Pacific would ward off conflict. Four years later, how do you see the state of the arms race? Has the balance of power between China, the United States, and regional allies shifted in ways you anticipated or in surprising directions?The Pacific naval arms race — primarily between the U.S. Navy, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, the Republic of China (Taiwan) Navy, and China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy — has not created dramatic windows of opportunity that tempt or provoke political elites to decide for war. China’s navy is investing heavily in air defense by building cruiser and frigate platforms that maximize multi-loading vertical launch systems for launching ballistic and air defense missiles. Taiwan’s investment in corvettes has also led to a 50 percent increase in vertical launch system capacity, although that still only amounts to 10 percent of the Chinese navy’s total for these systems. While the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force has increased its vertical launch system capacity by 10 percent, the U.S. and Australian navies have shrunk their capacities by a small margin.Indo-Pacific Command Chief Admiral Samuel Paparo is correct in his general observation that China is outbuilding the United States at a steady pace of six Chinese vessels to 1.8 American. However, China’s growth has been far less than the most alarmist views, which predicted a fleet of 460 vessels by 2030. Most importantly, the