Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***RussiaRussia continues to make incremental gains on the front line in eastern Ukraine, but Ukrainian drone attacks increasingly threaten Russia’s domestic energy infrastructure. In the last two weeks, Ukraine has successfully attacked at least four major oil and natural gas processing plants, in regions as disparate as Nizhny Novgorod, Astrakhan, Volgograd, and Ryazan. As these plants have been taken offline, there is potential for Russian gasoline production to fall further — on top of a decline that brought levels to a 12-year low in 2024. Both sides in the war are looking to press their respective advantages in the lead-up to potential negotiations over a ceasefire.Northern European states are expressing concern about an escalating Russian sabotage campaign targeting the region. After a merchant ship dragging its anchor cut an undersea fiber-optic communication cable between Latvia and Sweden on Jan. 26, Swedish authorities seized the ship. An investigation determined that the damage was the result of poor weather, equipment, and seamanship rather than sabotage, but the frequency of recent events of this type has led NATO to launch a new patrol and surveillance operation to protect critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, Norwegian intelligence services put out a public statement warning that Russia is likely to launch sabotage attacks against Norwegian energy infrastructure this year.Russian oil refinery. Image via Wikimedia Commons.North KoreaOn Jan. 25, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un viewed the testing of a “sea-to-surface” strategic cruise missile. In a separate statement, the North Korean Foreign Ministry criticized U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises and vowed the “toughest counteraction” for what it considers continued disregard of its “sovereignty and security interests.”Days later, Kim inspected a “nuclear-material
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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***RussiaRussia continues to make incremental gains on the front line in eastern Ukraine, but Ukrainian drone attacks increasingly threaten Russia’s domestic energy infrastructure. In the last two weeks, Ukraine has successfully attacked at least four major oil and natural gas processing plants, in regions as disparate as Nizhny Novgorod, Astrakhan, Volgograd, and Ryazan. As these plants have been taken offline, there is potential for Russian gasoline production to fall further — on top of a
