Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***RussiaThe battlefield situation remains difficult for Ukraine, with Russia gradually advancing toward major logistical hubs in the Donbas. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is losing momentum, with Russia recapturing up to 600 square kilometers worth of territory, albeit with heavy manpower and equipment losses. The surprise deployment of some North Korean troops in Kursk has put Ukrainian soldiers at an even greater disadvantage. By some reports, going forward, the number of North Korean forces aiding Russia’s war effort may increase to 100,000, with troops deployed in batches and rotated over time.In response to the Kremlin’s deployment of North Korean soldiers, the United States has authorized Ukraine to use long-range Army tactical missile systems in the Kursk region, and Ukraine has used British-provided Storm Shadows against targets in the western part of “mainland” Russia. The tactical missile systems were first deployed on Nov. 19. On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which permitted Russia to use nuclear weapons if it faced an aggression “with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy,” and to consider an attack from any non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear state as a joint attack against Russia potentially deserving of a nuclear response. On Nov. 21, Russia, for the first time, fired an experimental Oreshnik nuclear-capable medium-range hypersonic ballistic missile at Dnipro, Ukraine.Domestically, the Russian economy continues to show signs of strain. In mid-November, the dollar exchange rate crossed a psychological value of 100 Russian rubles for the first time in the last year. Russian businesses’ inflation expectations have reached a record high; in the entire history of data collection, the index of companies’ price expectations has risen so sharply only twice — in the first months of
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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***RussiaThe battlefield situation remains difficult for Ukraine, with Russia gradually advancing toward major logistical hubs in the Donbas. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is losing momentum, with Russia recapturing up to 600 square kilometers worth of territory, albeit with heavy manpower and equipment losses. The surprise deployment of some North Korean troops in Kursk has put Ukrainian soldiers at an even greater disadvantage. By some reports, going forward, the number of North Korean forces aiding Russia’s war effort may