A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep on a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it.***Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin reassigned Sergei Shoigu from defense minister to secretary of the national security council, effectively dismissing him from his post of twelve years. Putin picked Andrei Belousov, an economist and technocrat with no military experience, to take his place. Amidst a renewed Russian offensive in Ukraine, we asked five experts to explain the significance of this reshuffling. Read more below. Alexandra Prokopenko Fellow Carnegie Russia Eurasia CenterVladimir Putin’s priority is war, and a war of attrition is won by economics. Andrei Belousov could be an ideal candidate for this. He favors stimulating demand through the budget, meaning military spending will likely increase. Belousov can be called one of the architects of Russia’s militarized economy. Compared to figures like Sergey Shoigu and his detained deputy Temur Ivanov, Belousov appears ascetic. Optimization will likely occur by reducing tank biathlons, construction such as the Patriot Park, and other costly “toy soldier” games Shoigu enjoyed.However, there are challenges. Despite his long bureaucratic career, Belousov has never managed anything significant; presidential aides and deputy prime ministers are limited by their staffs, and the Ministry of Economic Development does not handle large budgets. Additionally, Belousov lacks his own team. The military-industrial complex and army are now managed by heavyweights like Valery Gerasimov, Sergey Shoigu, Denis Manturov, Dmitry Medvedev, and Alexey Dyumin, making intra-elite conflicts inevitable, especially given Belousov’s bad temper. His task is to avoid the mistakes of Soviet Defense Minister Dmitry Ustinov: ensure the military-industrial complex runs smoothly and efficiently without bankrupting the country. Janis Kluge Senior Associate The German Institute for International and
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A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep on a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it.***Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin reassigned Sergei Shoigu from defense minister to secretary of the national security council, effectively dismissing him from his post of twelve years. Putin picked Andrei Belousov, an economist and technocrat with no military experience, to take his place. Amidst a renewed Russian offensive in Ukraine, we asked five experts to explain the significance of this reshuffling.
