Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***ChinaOn Monday, Lai Ching-te will be inaugurated as the new president of Taiwan. Lai’s victory in January and inauguration in May have long been marked on many calendars as potential flashpoints for a crisis, since leaders in Beijing have called Lai a “troublemaker” and threatened various escalations if he won election.But the truth is that Lai’s initial actions upon winning the presidency have been quite careful and remarkably consistent with those of his predecessor. He has promised to maintain the cross-strait status quo and committed in his Jan. 13 victory speech to “confidently pursue exchanges and cooperation with China.” In recent weeks, Lai announced a cabinet that included many leaders who served the last eight years under his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, to say nothing of his vice president and former representative to the United States, Hsiao Bi-khim.Beijing will no doubt use the inauguration as an opportunity to try to steal more of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, levy additional economic pressure on Taipei, and step up coercive air and maritime activities. But thankfully Lai’s inauguration appears unlikely to generate the kind of crisis that some had feared. At the moment, Beijing appears more preoccupied by U.S. technology restrictions and South China Sea tensions than Taiwan’s leadership transition.Observers should watch carefully next week to ensure that China does not create a crisis around Lai’s inauguration. Let’s hope that this is one dog that doesn’t bark.Lai Ching-te. Photo by the Presidential Office in Taiwan via Wikimedia Commons.IranAs relations between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency remain fraught with challenges, signals from Tehran about potentially revising its nuclear doctrine and building a bomb are intensifying. In early May, Rafael Grossi, the
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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***ChinaOn Monday, Lai Ching-te will be inaugurated as the new president of Taiwan. Lai’s victory in January and inauguration in May have long been marked on many calendars as potential flashpoints for a crisis, since leaders in Beijing have called Lai a “troublemaker” and threatened various escalations if he won election.But the truth is that Lai’s initial actions upon winning the presidency have been quite careful and remarkably consistent with those of his predecessor.
