When the world's at stake,
go beyond the headlines.

Tensions between China and Japan have been heating up in recent months, sparked in November by a statement from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that Beijing interpreted as suggesting that Japan would respond militarily if China attacked Taiwan. Takaichi has pledged to increase Japan’s defense spending, and a major electoral victory in February has strengthened her position. We asked four experts to assess the risks.Read more below.Yun SunSenior Fellow and Director of the China Program at the Stimson CenterIn 2026, China could attempt to push back further in a number of domains. In the most extreme scenario, there is escalated risk of military conflict between China and Japan, especially in the maritime domain as Beijing tries to “teach Japan a lesson.” China could be more liberal in its future planning for military exercises against Taiwan to include more areas of Japan’s exclusive economic zones. It could also increase coordinated actions, including but not limited to strategic joint patrols in the air and at sea, with Russia in Japan’s immediate periphery.On the trade front, China most likely will impose more official and unofficial sanctions on Japan. China could also tighten export control measures, and at the minimum, expand the list of Japanese companies covered by China’s rare earth export control. China has restricted Japanese seafood exports to China, direct flights, Chinese tourists to Japan, and access to Chinese pandas.Jeffrey HornungJapan Lead for the RAND National Security Research Division and a senior political scientist at RANDThe recent intensifying tensions between China and Japan carry several important risks and consequences. First, given China’s tendency for provocative actions with military, coast guard, or fishing ships, there is a heightened danger of confrontation that could spiral into something more serious. This is particularly the case around Japan’s Senkaku Islands, where close encounters between naval or