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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranOnly days ago, the United States appeared poised to make good on President Donald Trump’s threat to intervene if the Iranian regime responded to widespread anti-government unrest with violence. However, while stepping up economic pressure via tariffs and additional sanctions, Washington held off on military action even as Tehran ferociously cracked down. The precise death toll is impossible to determine, given the extensive internet blackout in Iran, but multiple reports indicate that it runs in the thousands.Several factors appear to have fed into the U.S. decision not to attack Iran, at least for now. These include concerns that Iran would hit back at U.S. bases, uncertainty over how strikes would affect both the protesters and the regime, and a push by regional allies for Washington to hit the brakes. The Iranian government also reportedly conveyed to the White House that it would hold off on executing imprisoned protesters. Although the protests seem subdued for now, the United States is still bolstering its military strength in the region, moving an aircraft carrier and its strike group to the Middle East, plus additional fighter jets and air defense systems. Those assets could provide added leverage to push the Iranian government into a diplomatic deal, which U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said should cover Iran’s nuclear program, missiles, and regional proxies. Moving U.S. military assets closer to Iran also increases Washington’s means for an attack, if Trump chooses to do so. In that case, Tehran warns that it would retaliate “with everything we have.”Image: The USS Abraham Lincoln, which is currently on its way to the Middle East, refuels at sea in 2025. Image: Seaman Apprentice Zoe Simpson