When the world's at stake,
go beyond the headlines.

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***RussiaFollowing talks in Berlin between U.S., European, and Ukrainian representatives, reports suggest that the parties involved in the discussions have nearly reached agreement on a plan to end the Russo-Ukrainian War. The plan allegedly includes fast-tracked E.U. accession for Ukraine, U.S. security guarantees, a demilitarized zone along the full ceasefire line, transfer of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant out of Russian control, and funding for Ukraine’s recovery via frozen Russian assets and U.S. investment. Sharp disputes persist over territorial concessions and security arrangements, including Russia’s demand that Ukrainian forces withdraw from parts of Donbas that they currently control. It is unclear how much of the plan Russia might accept.Russian forces have been making limited, incremental gains in eastern and southern Ukraine, supported by heavy artillery and evolving drone tactics, though recent momentum appears to have stalled. While Pokrovsk is now largely under Russian control, capturing the town was costly and might offer limited advantage to Russia — although it still represents a setback for Ukraine.Russia has boosted its aerial campaign against Ukraine to overwhelm air defenses and collapse the national power grid as winter sets in. In the first two weeks of December, Russia launched nearly 3,000 drones and over 90 missiles — including a massive overnight barrage on Dec. 5–6. Meanwhile, Ukraine has used naval drones to strike Russian naval targets and vessels in the Black Sea that belong to Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers that export oil evading sanctions. According to The Atlantic, the United States has effectively not objected to these strikes and in some cases approved intelligence used for targeting Russian oil infrastructure.Last week, the European Commission adopted a decision indefinitely barring the transfer of frozen Russian assets until Russia ends the war, compensates Ukraine for damages, and