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Washington’s Risky Bet on Pakistan and the F-16

November 26, 2025
Washington’s Risky Bet on Pakistan and the F-16
Washington’s Risky Bet on Pakistan and the F-16

Washington’s Risky Bet on Pakistan and the F-16

Sajjan M. Gohel
November 26, 2025
In 2022, Sajjan Gohel and Marcus Andreopolous wrote “The F-16 and Nuclear Security: The Fault Lines in the U.S.-Pakistani Relationship,” where they argued that the United States should reconsider its practice of selling F-16s to Pakistan if it wants a more optimal long-term strategic outcome. Three years later, amidst warmer ties between the second Trump administration and Pakistan, we asked Sajjan to revisit their argument. Image: U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Christopher ParrIn your 2022 article “The F-16 and Nuclear Security: The Fault Lines in the U.S.-Pakistani Relationship,” you caution against the continued sale of F-16s to Pakistan if the United States is looking for a more optimal long-term strategic outcome. Three years later, what are your updated recommendations for how the United States could position itself more favorably vis-à-vis Pakistan without those sales?The United States should remain deeply cautious about supporting Pakistan’s F-16 capabilities because the logic that they could be used as leverage to moderate military behavior has consistently failed in practice. The F-16 has become less a symbol of partnership and more a token of Pakistan’s strategic manipulation of Washington’s security anxieties. Each time Washington has provided upgrades or sustainment, Pakistan’s military has interpreted it as validation of its approach. This entails prioritizing regional competition with India, hedging in Afghanistan, and maintaining a powerful role for the armed forces in national politics.This dynamic is even more troubling now that Pakistan has become heavily reliant on Chinese defense equipment and financing. Islamabad’s deepening partnership with Beijing is exemplified through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and extensive arms cooperation. This has manifested through the joint production of the JF-17 Thunder and the acquisition of Chinese drones, radar systems, and missile technology. Indirectly, it means that American F-16 sustainment benefits a military establishment whose logistics, supply chains, and doctrine are

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In 2022, Sajjan Gohel and Marcus Andreopolous wrote “The F-16 and Nuclear Security: The Fault Lines in the U.S.-Pakistani Relationship,” where they argued that the United States should reconsider its practice of selling F-16s to Pakistan if it wants a more optimal long-term strategic outcome. Three years later, amidst warmer ties between the second Trump administration and Pakistan, we asked Sajjan to revisit their argument. Image: U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Christopher ParrIn your 2022 article “The F-16 and Nuclear Security: The Fault Lines in the U.S.-Pakistani Relationship,” you caution against the continued sale of F-16s to Pakistan if

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