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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***RussiaOn Ukrainian frontlines, Russia has shifted to smaller raids under its “thousand cuts” strategy. On Sept. 27, Russian forces conducted the third-largest combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine of the war. President Vladimir Putin announced the start of the semi-annual conscription cycle. In response, Ukraine has targeted Russian oil refineries, causing widespread fuel shortages. Repairs at major refineries caused a 20 percent gasoline shortage and a 15 percent drop in September diesel production. Shortages are particularly severe in the far east, the frontline areas of Belgorod Oblast, and Crimea. The United States is considering permitting long-range strikes on Russian territory, per Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg.Russia has intensified hybrid attacks in Europe. One disrupted check-in systems at major airports, while drone incidents, repeated airspace violations, and GPS jamming prompted NATO to heighten Baltic vigilance. Russia also interfered in Moldova’s parliamentary elections through disinformation, financial manipulation, and attempts to incite riots.Russia’s worsening economic situation is reflected in the newly released federal budget, which projects a slight drop in military spending in 2026 before rising in 2027, raises value-added tax rates (VAT), expands VAT obligations for small businesses, and confirms the 2025 budget deficit at a record 5.7 trillion rubles.The State Emergency Service of Ukraine extracts an unexploded aerial bomb from a Russian airstrike on Kherson. Image: State Emergency Service of Ukraine via Wikimedia CommonsIranA spate of diplomatic contacts among Iranian, European, and American diplomats during the U.N. General Assembly failed to forge a last-gasp compromise that would defer the reimposition of sanctions against Iran. As of Sept. 27, six U.N. Security Council resolutions adopted between 2006 and 2010 and suspended as part of the