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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***RussiaIn early September, the Russian and Belarusian militaries conducted a major military exercise, called Zapad 2025. This was the first Zapad exercise since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The exercise was notably smaller than the previous one held in 2021. While Belarusian authorities presented the decrease in size as a de-escalatory move, the reality is that the exercise was limited by Russia’s inability to generate large numbers of troops beyond those that are being used to prosecute the war in Ukraine. From a military perspective, the exercise indicated that the Russian military has not really changed its methods of warfighting, since many of the drills were just scaled-down versions of drills conducted in 2021. Politically, the participation of Indian forces highlighted the shift in India’s position vis-à-vis major global powers since the United States imposed tariffs over the summer.Meanwhile, the notion of de-escalation was belied by the incursion of Russian drones into NATO territory on Sept. 10 in Poland and Sept. 14 in Romania. In both cases, NATO aircraft were scrambled to intercept the drones. Poland also asked for Article 4 consultations within NATO. According to the Polish foreign minister, the incursion by unarmed drones was an attempt by Russia to test NATO air defenses without launching a major provocation. Polish and NATO officials discounted the possibility of a mistake, since the incursion into Poland consisted of 19 drones, lasted several hours, and penetrated quite deep into Polish territory.Finally, Washington lifted sanctions on Belavia, the Belarusian national airline, in exchange for Minsk freeing 52 political prisoners — signaling some warming of ties between Belarus and the United States. At the same time, analysts