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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***RussiaOver the last two weeks, Russia and Ukraine have engaged in a competition over which country can make the other appear more reluctant to accept a ceasefire agreement. Russian leaders have clearly hoped to push U.S. President Donald Trump into blaming Ukraine for the failure of peacemaking efforts and walking away from both the effort and further assistance for Ukraine. While there were moments when such a scenario seemed close, Russia overplayed its hand. The mass casualty missile attack on an apartment building in Kyiv on April 24 led Trump to call on Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the attacks and to muse that Putin did not actually want to end the war and was stringing him along.The combination of the fallout from Russia’s missile attack and a positive one-on-one meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Vatican on the sidelines of the funeral of Pope Francis put pressure on Russia to try to turn the diplomatic tide. This was the backdrop for Putin’s surprise announcement of a three-day ceasefire for May 8–10 to mark the anniversary of the end of World War II. Both sides largely ignored the previous such ceasefire announcement over the Easter holiday, but the current one might be more effective, as it was announced farther in advance. Regardless of whether or not a short pause occurs, efforts to reach a longer-term ceasefire deal are accelerating — though the divide between the two sides’ positions means that a successful deal remains elusive.Aftermath of a Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv. Image: State Emergency Service of Ukraine via Wikimedia Commons.ChinaChina has entered a stalemate in its tariff war with