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In February, Abdullah Öcalan — the long-imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) — called on the group to lay down its arms and “dissolve itself” after more than 40 years of fighting Turkish forces. In an initial step, the PKK called for a ceasefire on March 1. In addition to significant implications for politics and security in Turkey, the development affects Kurds in Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Shifts in regional power structures over the last few months played a role in Öcalan’s decision, which in turn will help shape the geopolitics of the Middle East. We asked four experts to lay out how the PKK’s ceasefire and potential disbanding affects Turkey and its neighbors.Read more below.Gönül Tol Director of the Turkish Studies Program at the Middle East InstituteIf the PKK cadres heed Öcalan’s call and dissolve the organization, it would hand President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan a major political victory ahead of the 2028 elections — potentially reshaping Turkey’s political landscape for decades to come. By securing both Kurdish and Turkish nationalist support, Erdoğan could overcome the biggest obstacle to extending his rule: the constitutional limit preventing him from running again.At the heart of Erdoğan’s talks with Öcalan is not a genuine effort for peace but a calculated bid for survival. Turkey’s economy is struggling, Erdoğan’s support is waning, and legal barriers stand in the way of another term. A deal that dissolves the PKK could deliver him Kurdish backing in parliament, easing his path to rewriting the rules once again. Turkish nationalists — long fixated on eliminating the PKK — would rally behind him.The true cost of another Erdoğan term is clear: further democratic backsliding. Without meaningful reforms to address Turkey’s eroding democratic institutions, the end of the PKK will not bring peace — it will cement Erdoğan’s