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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***RussiaThis week, the fate of Ukraine shifted from the battlefields of the Donbas to a conference room in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia hosted talks between a U.S. team led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and a Russian team led by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. They agreed to “establish a consultation mechanism to address irritants to our bilateral relationship” and “appoint respective high-level teams to begin working on a path to ending the conflict in Ukraine.” The meeting followed a Feb. 12 phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.  Moscow views these events as a huge victory. Russia has broken out of its Western diplomatic isolation, and its stock market is up and its currency strengthened. In the last two weeks, Russia has gained assurances from the United States that Ukraine will not join NATO — without conceding anything in return. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that Ukraine’s ambitions to regain all of its territory are “unrealistic.” Furthermore, Trump strongly criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The White House decision to suspend many foreign aid programs also has negatively affected non-military assistance to Ukraine.Many Ukrainians and Europeans fear a scenario in which Ukraine gets blamed for the failure of “negotiations” and the United States ends its support for Ukraine, leaving Europe scrambling to fill the gap. Given recent remarks by Hegseth that Europe will have to take responsibility for European security, cuts in U.S. forces in Europe might be forthcoming. For months, Europeans have debated establishing a European peacekeeping force for Ukraine, but now they might need to focus more on aiding Ukraine’s fight and potentially protecting NATO and the European Union from