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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***JihadistsIn the past two weeks, the jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham conducted an offensive against the Assad regime that led to the latter’s downfall. This surprising event has excited not only elements within al-Qaeda’s branches but also the Taliban and Muslim Brotherhood, to name a few organizations. Parts of Syria remain under the control of the Turkish proxy Syrian National Army (in northern Aleppo and northern Raqqa governorates) and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (in southern Raqqa, all of Hasakah, and eastern Deir al-Zour governorates), but Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has nominally consolidated control over the remainder of the country. Questions remain about how it can mobilize its resources and security over a broader swath of territory compared to its prior holdings in Idlib governorate. Beyond this, on Dec. 9, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham announced that it was tasking Muhammad al Bashir with establishing a transition government that will last until March 1. Bashir has been the prime minister of the civilian-led Syrian Salvation Government, which is backed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, since January 2024. The appointment of Bashir highlighted that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is creating its own facts on the ground — regardless of interest from the United Nations and other countries seeking to help with a transition — and that those in charge of this transition will be backed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.Syrian rebels gather around an equestrian statue of Bassel al-Assad in Aleppo in November 2024. Image: Voice of America via Wikimedia Commons.IranOver the past 12 weeks, Iran’s regime has seen its most critical non-state ally severely degraded by bangs and its most longstanding state ally fall from power with a whimper. The damage inflicted