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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***ChinaU.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan just returned from Beijing, but the U.S.-Chinese relationship remains stuck in neutral. Sullivan’s discussions with counterpart Wang Yi have been the most productive engagements between the two countries in the last four years. Yet, Sullivan’s dozen hours with Wang did not yield any public deliverables other than promises to hold additional meetings in the future. The most important of these include potential in-person summits between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping, as well as a forthcoming sit-down between U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo and Chinese Southern Theater Commander Gen. Wu Yanan.The latter meeting is particularly notable, since just after Sullivan returned to Washington, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel once again rammed a Philippine Coast Guard ship near Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea. Wu commands the People’s Liberation Army’s forces in the South China Sea, so this and other incidents will no doubt come up when Paparo and Wu meet. Unfortunately, there is little good news on this front. Although Beijing and Manila recently made a deal to de-escalate tensions around Second Thomas Shoal, the pressure has not been relieved. Instead, Chinese pressure has just shifted to Sabina Shoal, much like a balloon being squeezed in one location and then expanding in another.It is positive that the United States and China are talking. But Beijing is clearly willing to continue its coercive campaign against U.S. allies despite these engagements. Therefore, American leaders will have to contemplate more risky actions in the weeks and months ahead.National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan meets with Director Wang Yi in Bangkok in January 2024. Image via Wikimedia Commons.RussiaWhile