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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***ChinaLai Ching-te’s inauguration as Taiwan’s new president, featuring a speech that did little to assuage Beijing’s fears that Lai is a “separatist” bent on formal independence for Taiwan, stirred up some strong emotions on the other side of the strait. Chinese leaders reacted harshly – but not as harshly as many supposed – by launching yet another round of military exercises that abruptly cordoned off vital areas of Taiwan’s maritime and air space and postured the People’s Liberation Army to seize Taiwan-held islands close to the mainland.Such menacing demonstrations have emerged as favored coercive instruments for Beijing since U.S. Speaker of the House Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in August 2022. Various events considered provocative in Beijing have furnished the justifications for showcasing the army’s modernizing joint capabilities and realistic combat potential in a cross-Strait scenario. This trend is now well-established, with each successive round of exercises establishing a distinctive “new normal” pattern of operations in and around the Taiwan Strait.This latest round of exercises was entitled Joint Sword-2024A, and did not occur until three days after Lai’s speech. Unlike prior efforts, this past week’s operations did not involve live fire drills nor did it creep People’s Liberation Army forces and fires ever closer to Taiwan’s territorial waters. Instead, it displayed the huge scale of the army’s capacity – some 62 military aircraft and 19 naval vessels in the strait – and Beijing’s determination to continuously squeeze Taiwan’s freedom of maneuver.There was no genuine crisis in the wake of Lai’s inauguration. If “kicking the can down the road” is the best that can be hoped for in respect of Taiwan’s status, then this episode should