When the world's at stake,
go beyond the headlines.

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***RussiaThe latest $175 million package of U.S. security assistance to Ukraine was announced on Dec. 6 with this somber warning from the State Department: “Unless Congress acts […] this will be one of the last security assistance packages we can provide to Ukraine.” On the same day, an attempt to move forward with a bill to provide billions in urgently needed security assistance for Ukraine failed in the Senate.Without additional funding, the United States will be increasingly constrained in its ability to provide military assistance to Ukraine, and the remaining aid (estimated by the Department of Defense to be $1.1 billion) is at risk of depletion. NATO allies cannot make up for the loss of U.S. assistance.It’s important to describe in clear terms what will happen if U.S. military assistance to Ukraine slows or stops due to exhausted funds. For Ukraine this will mean artillery shell inventories will run out, and if they do, Ukrainian units will at first lose the ability to destroy Russian units, then lose the ability to stop their advances, and eventually could lose the ability to defend their own positions. Guided Multiple Launch Rocket missiles and other precision strike capabilities will run out and, when they do, Russian forces can again gather at will in occupied Ukraine and launch new assaults. Ukraine’s surface-to-air missile inventory will eventually give out and, as it does, Ukraine’s leaders will be forced to decide which cities are defended and which cities are not. Ukraine may be forced to negotiate with Russia with no strong western support for leverage. Or, even worse, Russia could attempt to take more territory from a depleted Ukrainian military.Stopping