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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***RussiaOptimism is oozing from the Kremlin. Any hopes that Ukraine’s disappointing counter-offensive would create an opening for negotiations have been dashed by the renewed hubris coming from the Kremlin. During President Vladimir Putin’s annual press conference session, he affirmed his maximalist war aims, and earlier, sipping champagne, he warned that Ukraine “has no future.” Putin thinks the war has turned firmly in Russia’s direction. First, Russia has shifted toward a war-like economy, with defense industrial production finally ramping up. Russia will now have a clear materiel advantage on the battlefield. Second, Western support is cracking, with both the United States and the European Union failing to agree on their respective assistance packages. There are now questions of whether Ukraine will receive more than $100 billion in essential aid. Moreover, if the European Union passes its package (which is likely) and the United States fails to do so (which is looking more likely), there is no way for the Europeans to fill the vacuum left by the United States, since Europe has little off-the-shelf equipment to give. The Ukrainians are now being forced to heavily ration their ammunition as U.S. aid slows to a trickle. Meanwhile, Russia is now producing more than 100 long-range cruise missiles a month (compared to 40 a year ago), meaning they will likely try to exhaust Ukrainian air defense by pummeling Ukrainian cities. Whether Ukraine will be resupplied with air defense munitions is now an open question that Putin will be sure to test. Ukraine is facing a long, cold winter.Russian President Vladimir Putin at the expanded meeting of the Defence Ministry Board this week. Source: Russian Presidency.IranAs Israel’s military campaign in Gaza continues in