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In Brief: The War in Ukraine and the Russian Economy

August 30, 2023
In Brief: The War in Ukraine and the Russian Economy
In Brief: The War in Ukraine and the Russian Economy

In Brief: The War in Ukraine and the Russian Economy

Maria Shagina, Chris Miller, Janis Kluge, Stephanie Petrella, and Maximillian Hess
August 30, 2023
A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep on a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it.***Earlier this month, Russia raised its benchmark interest rate by 3.5 points to 12 percent, its third-largest hike in a decade. The move was an attempt to stabilize the ruble, stem rising inflation, and bring some relief to an economy struggling against sanctions, declining oil prices and the costs of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Russian currency has lost a quarter of its value against the dollar since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and annual inflation has risen well above the government’s 4 percent target to an average of 7.6 percent this summer. We asked five experts to tell us more about what’s happening in the Russian economy and how the war has impacted it.Read more below.Maria Shagina Diamond-Brown Senior Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy The International Institute for Strategic StudiesThe precipitous fall of the Russian ruble shows the limits of the country’s resilience and the signs of an overheating economy. The ruble’s declining value is the result of a growing imbalance between lower hydrocarbon revenues, rising war-related expenditures and severe labor shortages. The oil embargo has almost halved Russia’s hydrocarbon revenues, in stark contrast to last year – an energy bonanza for the government. Defense spending has risen by almost 10 percent, with other sectors feeling the pinch. Prigozhin’s mutiny in June added to the uncertainty and fueled capital outflows. As a result, Russia’s foreign reserves have shrunk by 85 percent this year to just $25 billion. Sanctions have limited the government’s ability to intervene fiscally. The ruble’s fall is not a sign

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A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep on a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it.***Earlier this month, Russia raised its benchmark interest rate by 3.5 points to 12 percent, its third-largest hike in a decade. The move was an attempt to stabilize the ruble, stem rising inflation, and bring some relief to an economy struggling against sanctions, declining oil prices and the costs of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Russian currency has

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