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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranIran’s recent extensive missile and drone attack on Israel marks a significant escalation in the longstanding confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv. The attack, according to Tehran, was in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus earlier in April, which led to the death of a top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander. Iranian officials have declared their act of “revenge” complete. However, they have issued stern warnings about responding more forcefully to any future Israeli retaliatory attacks.Senior Iranian military figures speak of a “new equation” in their strategic posture vis-à-vis Israel, indicating that any harm to Iranian interests or personnel, even outside Iran’s borders, will trigger a direct response. This rhetoric suggests that the main objective of the attack was not just to respond to the consulate incident but also to alter the rules of engagement with Israel. In the same vein, experts close to the government highlight the restoration of deterrence against Israel as a primary motive behind the attack.In any case, the recent move reflects a broader shift in Iran’s regional strategy toward a more assertive stance. This change is influenced by several factors, including the prolonged war in Gaza, which has become a major concern for the Israeli military, compounded by increasing international pressures on Israel. An understanding that neither Israel’s Western allies nor regional states desire a new war also plays into Iran’s calculations. This perception likely influences Iran to anticipate that the potential scale of the Israeli response may be restrained.While this strategic shift does not signify Iran’s desire for a full-scale war, it underscores how the ongoing conflict in Gaza has emboldened Tehran, fostering a