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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranNow that the U.S. midterms are over, the looming question is how and when one side or the other will seek to break through the current impasse. In the short term, the ball appears to be in Washington’s court to determine the next move. The Trump administration might take a more patient approach of continuing to squeeze Iran’s economy through the blockade and sanctions. The argument is that there’s no particular rush, as Iran would need time to fully reconstitute its arsenal or take steps forward in its nuclear program. The immediate pressure of U.S. elections is over, and the American public clearly doesn’t want to go back to war. However, President Donald Trump might believe he has little to lose from a return to war. Indeed, he might believe a decisive defeat of Iran is still possible and offers an opportunity to rebuild his political image. Regardless, a munitions shortage will be a practical constraint.Tehran is likely to wait a while to see what Washington does, but it won’t wait indefinitely. Iran’s leaders have been clear that a no-war, no-peace status quo is unacceptable. The regime has some incentives to negotiate, but, based on previous experience, it doesn’t trust that the United States and Israel would not attack during talks. It will want substantial guarantees that the Trump administration might be unwilling or unable to provide. Iran’s leaders believe they can absorb more economic pain, after years of regular predictions of economic collapse did not come to pass. Furthermore, the killing of the supreme leader and other top officials early in the war has hardened regime leaders, who now might feel that they have