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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranIn late September, U.S. and Iranian negotiators engaged in indirect talks for the first time since the memorandum of understanding they struck in June fell apart. On Oct. 8, U.S. President Donald Trump said “productive discussions” were underway. But it will take some doing to break the deadlock. Tehran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week carries diminishing allure for Washington, as traffic through the chokepoint has trended upward. Also, Iran’s demand for upfront financial returns only underscores the growing economic strain the regime is facing under U.S. pressure, and Tehran continues to insist that any nonproliferation discussions should come after an initial stage provides access to financial assets and sanctions relief. Taken together, the Trump administration likely sees the proposition as far from satisfactory — requiring financial concessions that Washington is reluctant to concede and providing no guarantee of progress on resuming inspections or securing limits on Iran’s nuclear program. The heightened rate of attacks on vessels in recent days is likely Tehran’s way of signaling that it can still inject more volatility into the market, but that won’t be enough to force Washington into accepting Iranian terms. Furthermore, a window of opportunity for Iran will soon close, as the Trump administration is less likely to feel pressure to address high oil prices and an unpopular war after the midterm elections on Nov. 3.Aerial picture of Tehran, July 1, 2026. Image: Reza Ghanbarzadeh via Wikimedia CommonsChinaThe Sept. 23–25 Washington summit between Trump and Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping featured pageantry and unusually high levels of diplomatic protocol but achieved little of clear substance. While the Chinese side had reason to celebrate