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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranThe U.S.-Iranian ceasefire agreed in April began deteriorating — and the Memorandum of Understanding signed on June 17 — ramping up to a near-constant exchange of hostilities in early July. On July 10, Trump declared that the ceasefire was over. The United States resumed its naval blockade and has been striking Iranian soil on a daily basis. Iran has targeted vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz while launching drones and missiles at Arab Gulf states and further west into Jordan and Syria — killing three U.S. soldiers in Jordan on July 17.Mediators are trying to secure another truce, but they face an uphill struggle. While the logic of breaking a lose-lose dynamic with mounting economic and military costs brought Washington and Tehran to the table before, each seems to have reverted to a belief that escalation might yield a better return. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump on Tuesday indicated that the United States may soon target Pickaxe Mountain, a facility where Israeli intelligence reportedly believes Iran might be holding advanced centrifuges and some enriched uranium. In recent days and hours, there have been growing indications of a potential increase in hostilities, based on reports of movements of U.S. forces and warnings from Trump that the United States might expand targets to include bridges and power plants.Divided on both the necessity and substance of an off-ramp, and deeply mistrustful of the other side’s objectives, a conflict that began nearly five months ago and has gone through ebbs and flows of fighting and diplomacy looks poised to continue and potentially intensify.San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ship USS New Orleans (LPD-18) patrols the Arabian Sea enforcing a maritime blockade