Episode Notes:

Last week, the German government announced a large military aid package for Ukraine. The moves comes amid renewed efforts to hasten defense reforms called for in Chancellor Scholz's Zeitenwende policy. Here to discuss the aid package and what it means is Minna Ålander. Minna is a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

[:18] Intro

[:28] Germany's increased support for Ukraine

[1:35] Why now?

[2:35] The role of the Defense Minister

[3:58] The reaction in Europe

[5:30] Future of European security

Episode Transcript

Aaron Stein: My name is Aaron Stein, and I am the Chief Content Officer at War on the Rocks. You are listening to The Warcast, the members-only podcast for what you need to know, now.

Hello, and welcome to The Warcast. Today I'm talking to Minna Alander, who's a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Minna, it's good to have you on the podcast.

Minna Alander: Hi, thanks for having me.

Aaron Stein: The reason we wanted to have you on is because you are an avid follower of German politics. There have been developments in German politics, particularly around support for Ukraine. President Zelenskyy made a late-night visit, was it last week or this week? We've seen corresponding moves of an increase in German defense support for Ukraine, perhaps in marked contrast to the early hesitancy in this conflict. What's your take on what's been going on?

Minna Alander: It's indeed quite remarkable, this latest package that was announced to coincide with Zelenskyy's visit, basically doubles Germany's military aid so far to Ukraine. It's worth almost three billion euros, so quite a big package. Before that, Germany's total military aid to Ukraine had been at around three billion euros. It's quite significant. What I find even more significant is that in the joint declaration by Zelenskyy and German Chancellor Scholz, Germany pledged to have earmarked 11 billion euros for 2023 and onwards for further military support. That's quite significant.

Aaron Stein: What explains the change? There was a lot of frustration. I think this manifests itself over the hesitancy to export Leopard tanks. We've gotten over that hurdle, and now it seems like with this larger package there's more willingness. Why do you think that is?

Minna Alander: I think that the tanks really were, for Germany, kind of a mental blockade. Having overcome that, it was, in a way, a dam breaker, maybe. Now it feels easier to, now that Germany made the experience of having gotten over that red line and having seen that no nuclear escalation happened, so I think that's probably important. Also, the new defense minister, although he doesn't call the shots on the military aid, but he has had an overall positive impact on the reforms that Germany's trying to implement now in order to make this Zeitenwende happen that Chancellor Scholz announced last year.

Aaron Stein: That's actually something I wanted to talk to you about, which is the implementation of Zeitenwende. I pronounce that correctly?

Minna Alander: Zeitenwende, yes.

Aaron Stein: This new defense minister, it does seem like he has come in and has been empowered to make the reforms, and that maybe is bleeding over into how the politics of Ukraine and support for Ukraine are actually manifesting itself in the country. Do I have that right, or do you have a different read on what actually has been going on?

Minna Alander: The thing is, what he has been very impactful on is that, of course, the defense minister is responsible mainly for the internal reforms. The internal reforms are very important because Germany's ability to continue supporting Ukraine will also hinge on that. In that sense, it's kind of been this discovery for Germany, that it actually matters who is the defense minister, that it's not an irrelevant post in the government.

What has really distinguished Boris Pistorius in contrast to his predecessor is that he's very motivated. He understands what the challenges and problems are, and he's tackling them there where it hurts the most, namely the procurement process. That has been Germany's big, big problem, that it's just way too slow, and everything's just so cumbersome and over-bureaucratic. He's trying to really tackle that.

Aaron Stein: Zooming out a little bit, what's been the reaction to this in Europe? I think it's been easy to beat up on Germany, particularly because of how slow they've been moving, and about how least risk averse they've been from the beginning. Have people caught up to this change, particularly in Europe, or are people really grappling with what's going on in the country?

Minna Alander: It always depends on how you want to view it. For Germany, this has been a historically fast pace of change. Germany's not a quick country to implement big changes, and that is for a good historical reason. In that sense, of course, I think that partners really appreciate that Germany has come a long way, but there's also still a lot of frustration that we are having a major land war in Europe, and it still took over a year, kind of. You can see the glass can be half full or half empty, depending on who you ask. There's certainly less understanding for Germany, let's say, in Poland, and maybe also to an extent in the Baltic States, because they would have expected a swifter reaction.

I think what is quite important is that, for example, the new defense minister, he has actually said that Ukraine should win. That's something that German Chancellor Scholz, who, of course, in the end, is the one who decides at the end, he has always just emphasized that Ukraine can't lose and Russia can't win. That's a substantial and collective difference to actually saying that Ukraine should win.

Aaron Stein: Where is this going? I know that, I think Germany just released a new national defense, I think it's its first national ...

Minna Alander: It's not published yet.

Aaron Stein: ... Security strategy?

Minna Alander: Actually. Yeah, it's still in the works.

Aaron Stein: It's not published yet? Okay, but they're clearly working on it. Clearly, the country is trying to grapple with the impact and the spillover effects of the war in Ukraine and future European security. If you had to give our listeners what your thoughts are on how that debate is playing out in domestic politics and what that could possibly mean, I'd appreciate it.

Minna Alander: There's quite a high support, especially for the higher defense spending in Germany, and also for supporting Ukraine also militarily. One year ago, that wasn't really self-evident, so that's great. That support has stayed quite solid. I think that for many Germans, it's still a big, big challenge to get used to the idea that Germany should have strong armed forces again. It's not something that comes naturally to the society and the thinking there.

I think that the urgency is, at the moment, still very much understood, and there's definitely, this momentum that has been actually growing this year, I think. There's always a danger that when the war drags on, and other investments also have to be made domestically and so on, that then the willingness to invest so much in the military might slacken again. It's definitely looking much better now than it was a year ago. I would say that at this moment, my glass is half full.

Aaron Stein: Well, Minna, I guess if there's more developments, we'll have to have you back on. I appreciate you coming on and walking us through German politics.

Minna Alander: Thank you.

Aaron Stein: Thanks everybody for listening.