Episode Notes:

On Sunday, November 25, Russian ships attacked and seized three Ukrainian vessels and their 23 crew members off the coast of Crimea near the Azov Sea. In response, Ukraine has since declared martial law in part of the country. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko warns allies of an "extremely serious threat of Russian invasion."

Michael Kofman, Senior Research Scientist at CNA Corporation and Fellow at the Kennan Institute, discusses what to expect.

Note: Minor recording issue in the first question (0:48-2:40).

[ 0:17 ] Intro
[ 0:48 ] What triggered the event
[ 2:32 ] Purpose of the martial law
[ 4:23 ] Best NATO reaction
[ 6:35 ] Relevance of the Montreux Convention
[ 7:55 ] Asymmetry and how Ukraine may deescalate