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In 2020, Austin Doctor wrote, “The Looming Influx of Foreign Fighters in Sub-Saharan Africa,” in which he predicted the region would see an influx of foreign fighters to aid Islamist extremist groups. Six years later, we asked Austin to revisit his arguments.Image: African Union Mission in Somalia (Photo by Abukar Albadri)In your 2020 article, you forecasted an influx of foreign fighters into sub-Saharan Africa within a year. Six years later, how has that forecast held up? Did the anticipated surge materialize on the scale you expected? Why or why not?There are far more foreign terrorist fighters, who hail from a wider range of global regions, active in African Islamist militant forces today than were six years ago. That includes American travelers. Kim Cragin estimated in November 2025 that 53 percent of IS-Somalia, 33 percent of IS-West Africa, and 33 percent of IS-Sahel forces were composed of foreign terrorist fighters. That’s notable. Foreigners are also certainly present in prominent al-Qaeda affiliate groups in the region, such as al-Shabaab, though the proportions seem to be relatively smaller. In terms of tempo, my 2020 forecast was a bit overcaffeinated. The number of foreign fighters active in sub-Saharan Africa circa 2021 — especially those from outside the African region — can hardly be characterized as a fully realized “influx.” Instead, this trend has progressed to its current levels over the past six years at a steadier pace.There are a few possible explanations for the lag. First, even after Baghouz fell in 2019, the Islamic State remained operationally focused in Iraq and Syria through 2022. For foreign recruits looking for a fight, there was no immediate pull to go elsewhere. Foreign fighters don’t move toward a vacuum, they are drawn to momentum. By 2023, al-Naba front pages consistently featured activities in Africa, a signal of