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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranU.S. and Iranian negotiators gathered in Geneva on Feb. 17 for their second round of talks in less than a fortnight. There appears to be incremental progress around what a possible deal between Washington and Tehran should cover. However, the two sides remain far apart on fundamental aspects of a potential agreement. Iranian officials might be willing to give a little more on the nuclear front than they did in the negotiations preceding the June 2025 war, but the United States appears to be set on widening the parameters of talks to include concessions on missiles and proxies that the Iranians refuse to entertain. The pattern of returning to third-party capitals after each session does not bode well for momentum and efficiency as the possibility of military action beckons. The United States is continuing to bolster the already considerable firepower it is building up across the Middle East, with a second aircraft carrier making a beeline to join the USS Abraham Lincoln. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei might well have been signaling his position with the literal backdrop to a Tuesday speech: a Quranic verse stating that “should anyone aggress you, assail him in the manner he assailed you.”Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. sail in the Arabian Sea, Feb. 6, 2026. Image: Petty Officer 1st Class Jesse Monford via DVIDSRussiaRussia has continued to strike energy-related targets in Ukraine even as another round of peace talks took place in Geneva. The talks did not result in any breakthroughs, with issues of territorial concessions and Russian demands for limits on Ukrainian military power and NATO