Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranThe Iranian government has faced mass protests and military strikes by its adversaries before, but the convergence of internal unrest and the possibility of outside intervention is a more challenging dynamic. Since late December, when the accelerating decline of the national currency prompted demonstrations by merchants in Tehran, a wave of anti-regime unrest has spread around the country. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that a bloody crackdown could trigger some form of U.S. response. By some counts, there have been approximately three dozen fatalities so far. Iranian leaders are likely wondering how grave a threat this is, coming from a president who approved the killing of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s most influential military commander, during his first term and ordered strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities this past June. Both of those operations — plus the recent capture and imprisonment of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — suggest that the Iranian regime cannot dismiss Trump’s warnings. Tehran certainly seems to have taken notice: On Tuesday, Iran’s Defense Council asserted that the regime would “not confine itself solely to post-attack responses and considers concrete indicators of threat as part of its security calculus.” Iran’s leadership may have one eye on the domestic turmoil, but another is firmly and uneasily set on what the United States and Israel make of it.Anti-regime protests in Qazvin, Iran. Image: Tansim News Agency via Wikimedia Commons.RussiaMaduro’s capture shook Russian political elites. Russian officials have condemned the U.S. operation in Venezuela and demanded the release of Maduro and his wife, describing his capture as “an unacceptable encroachment on the sovereignty of an independent state.” At the same time, military bloggers have highlighted the contrast
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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranThe Iranian government has faced mass protests and military strikes by its adversaries before, but the convergence of internal unrest and the possibility of outside intervention is a more challenging dynamic. Since late December, when the accelerating decline of the national currency prompted demonstrations by merchants in Tehran, a wave of anti-regime unrest has spread around the country. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that a bloody crackdown could trigger some form of U.S. response.
