As the United States continues to increase its military presence in the Caribbean and to strike boats that the government accuses of trafficking drugs, the Venezuelan government and people are feeling the intensifying pressure and preparing for potential U.S. military action directly against the country. We asked five experts to examine how various actors within Venezuela are responding — and how they might react if the situation escalates further.Read more below.John Polga-Hecimovich Associate Professor of Political Science at the U.S. Naval AcademyVenezuela’s domestic response to escalating U.S. military threats has blended repression, mobilization, and cautious diplomacy. President Nicolas Maduro recognizes that, if the United States decides to remove him, it likely could, and he has done everything possible to avert that outcome. He has intensified internal crackdowns, targeting civil society and silencing dissent amid deepening regime paranoia. Consistent with the coup-proofing measures that have characterized his rule, Maduro’s strategy is to preserve elite cohesion and deter internal challenges through selective purges of disloyal officers. He has even staged mass militia enlistments as symbolic displays of defiance intended to promote a rally-around-the-flag effect and advance a narrative of victimization. Militarily, he has repositioned Russian-supplied air defense systems while simultaneously ordering strikes on insurgent and cartel camps near the Colombian border as weak gestures of compliance with U.S. anti-drug goals. If the United States does strike Venezuelan targets, the regime would likely respond with limited retaliation while focusing on repression at home to rally nationalist sentiment, maintain internal control, and avoid a full-scale confrontation.Note: The views expressed here are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of or endorsement by the U.S. Naval Academy, the Department of the Navy, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.Laura Cristina Dib Venezuela Program Director at the Washington Office on Latin AmericaVenezuela is under an authoritarian
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As the United States continues to increase its military presence in the Caribbean and to strike boats that the government accuses of trafficking drugs, the Venezuelan government and people are feeling the intensifying pressure and preparing for potential U.S. military action directly against the country. We asked five experts to examine how various actors within Venezuela are responding — and how they might react if the situation escalates further.Read more below.John Polga-Hecimovich Associate Professor of Political Science at the U.S. Naval AcademyVenezuela’s domestic response to escalating U.S. military threats has blended repression, mobilization, and cautious diplomacy. President Nicolas Maduro recognizes