In 2022, Dr. Janko Šćepanović of the Shanghai International Studies University wrote “The Sheriff and the Banker: Russia and China in Central Asia,” where he described the dynamic between China and Russia in Central Asian countries. Three years on, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine rages on, we asked him to revisit his original assessments.Read more below:Image: Russian Ministry of Defense.In your 2022 article “The Sheriff and the Banker: Russia and China in Central Asia,” you described Russia and China’s relationship in Central Asia as an informal “division of labor.” Three years later, how would you assess this metaphor’s continued relevance? Has the “sheriff and banker” dynamic evolved or fundamentally changed?This informal division of labor is closely tied to the relationship between Moscow and Beijing. The three-plus years of Russia’s war on Ukraine have shown that the Russo-Chinese strategic partnership endures. China did not openly endorse Russia’s illegal invasion — but its attitude has been “friendly neutrality,” and Russia endorsed its peace proposals. China has also expanded trade with Russia by as much as 64 percent since 2021, which was of critical importance to the latter after its economic relations with Europe collapsed.The last three years have not seen dramatic shifts in power dynamics in Central Asia. China refrained from taking advantage of Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine — while not forsaking its interests and continuing to build bilateral cooperation, including in the security sphere, with states like Tajikistan. Moscow is not in a position to oppose this. As it finds itself embroiled in a costly war in Ukraine, and has transferred some of its troops stationed at Central Asian bases to Ukraine, Moscow sees China’s activity as helpful burden-sharing.At the same time, while not entirely focused on Central Asia, Russia has not withdrawn from it. In its primary foreign policy documents, Russia still prioritizes the “Near Abroad” above any other region.
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In 2022, Dr. Janko Šćepanović of the Shanghai International Studies University wrote “The Sheriff and the Banker: Russia and China in Central Asia,” where he described the dynamic between China and Russia in Central Asian countries. Three years on, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine rages on, we asked him to revisit his original assessments.Read more below:Image: Russian Ministry of Defense.In your 2022 article “The Sheriff and the Banker: Russia and China in Central Asia,” you described Russia and China’s relationship in Central Asia as an informal “division of labor.” Three years later, how would you assess this metaphor’s continued relevance?
