In 2021, Nicholas Miller wrote, “The Lessons of the Past Point to Rejoining the Iran Deal,” in which he detailed how previous nuclear non-proliferation diplomacy had been derailed and the lessons it offered for policymakers. Now, four years later, after the Biden administration was not able to rejoin the so-called Iran nuclear deal, we asked Miller to reexamine his argument given all that’s happened in the world and the Middle East in particular.Read more below:Image: Dragon Tactic via Wikimedia Commons.In your 2021 article, “The Lessons of the Past Point to Rejoining the Iran Deal,” you counseled the then-incoming Biden administration that both historically and during the Trump administration, maximalist demands on “rogue powers” like Iran were unlikely to yield workable nuclear non-proliferation deals. Four years on, as the Biden administration has given way to a second Trump administration without rejoining the Iran nuclear deal, how do you feel your assessment holds up?Iran’s behavior over the last four years reinforces my assessment that a revived Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action would have been in America’s interest. Iran is closer to the nuclear weapons threshold than it has ever been. It now possesses enough 60% enriched uranium to make six bombs if the material is enriched further. It resumed research applicable to weaponization, is enriching uranium with more advanced centrifuges, and reduced the International Atomic Energy Agency’s ability to monitor its nuclear activities. None of this would have been permissible under a working nuclear deal.Outside the nuclear domain, Iran has been supplying Russia with missiles and drones to support its war against Ukraine. It seems to have at least tacitly supported the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attacks against Israel. It has launched two major missile barrages at Israel in response to Israeli military operations against Iran and its proxies. There’s no way
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In 2021, Nicholas Miller wrote, “The Lessons of the Past Point to Rejoining the Iran Deal,” in which he detailed how previous nuclear non-proliferation diplomacy had been derailed and the lessons it offered for policymakers. Now, four years later, after the Biden administration was not able to rejoin the so-called Iran nuclear deal, we asked Miller to reexamine his argument given all that’s happened in the world and the Middle East in particular.Read more below:Image: Dragon Tactic via Wikimedia Commons.In your 2021 article, “The Lessons of the Past Point to Rejoining the Iran Deal,” you counseled the then-incoming Biden administration