When the world's at stake,
go beyond the headlines.

Welcome to Rewind & Reconnoiter. Each week, we’ll ask one of our authors to look back at an article they’ve written for War on the Rocks in light of a current news event. Did their argument hold up? Read more below to find out.***Last year, Ryan Gingeras wrote “Why Erdogan Might Choose War with Greece” for War on the Rocks in which he argued that “a conflict between Greece and Turkey appears not only possible but probable.” Amidst the apparent effort by Turkey and Greece to “mend ties,” we asked him to look back on his article and argument. Read more below.Image: TwitterLast fall, you wrote a piece for War on the Rocks in which you argued that, based on Turkey’s bellicose actions toward Greece and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s increasingly hostile rhetoric toward the country, “a conflict between Greece and Turkey appears not only possible but probable.” However, Greece and Turkey appear — at least for now — to be attempting to improve ties. What has brought about this change?The short answer is we’re not completely sure. Turkish state media declared soon after the tragic February 2023 earthquake in southern Turkey that Greek–Turkish relations were improving due to the condolences Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis extended to Erdogan. Pro-government commentators insist that other tragedies during the summer, such as the wildfires in Greece, further set the tone for warming relations between the two countries. Erdogan’s decision to switch course on Greece also seems to have been part of a general “rethink” in Turkish foreign policy after the second round of voting in the country’s presidential election. The appointment of Turkey’s long-serving intelligence chief, Hakan Fidan, to head the foreign ministry was touted in Ankara as the beginning of a wide-ranging effort to “normalize” relations with various states on the basis of “shared interests.” Could there be more to Erdogan’s decision