Episode Notes:

Joining us to discuss the Jordanian perspective on the war in Gaza is Farah Bdour, Farah has been the Programs Director at the Amman Center for Peace and Development (ACPD) since 2012.

[:34] Public opinion

[4:26] Diplomatic goals

[10:58] Jordanian security

Episode Transcript

Nicholas Danforth: My name is Nicholas Danforth and I'm an editor at War on the Rocks. You are listening to The WarCast, the members-only podcast for what you need to know. Now to find out more about the Jordanian perspective on the war on Gaza, we're joined today by Farah Bdour. Farah has been the program's director at the Amman Center for Peace and Development since 2012. Welcome to the WarCast.

Farah Bdour: Thank you for having me, Nick.

Nicholas Danforth: Give us a sense of what Jordan's goals in this conflict are right now.

Farah Bdour: First, let me start by setting the context to understand Jordan's policies and position toward the war in Gaza, where public opinion is playing the most influential factor in shaping these policies. For the past month, Nick, Jordanians have been breathing news about Gaza. No matter where you are in the country, everyone is tuned in to see how the war in Gaza is evolving. The heart-wrenching images streamed from the strip is definitely putting everyone in the darkest mood ever adding to this emotions of anger and repulsion towards statements by Israeli ministers who called for nuking Gaza or describing Palestinians as animals, which really contributed to the rise of anti-Israel sentiments among Jordanians. On the other hand, everyone basically is showing solidarity with the Palestinians in different ways. Since October 7th, for example, we have seen constant large protests in downtown Amman calling the government for opening the borders so Jordanians could join their Palestinian brethren in the fight against Israel.

We have also seen a protest near the Israeli embassy in Arabia with calls to annul the Peace treaty and canceling any agreements signed with Israel. The foreign embassies, by the way, which showed unequivocal support for Israel were not spared either. We have seen a protest against the American embassy in Abdoun and the French Embassy in Jamal Amman, and you could see the rise of anti-American anti-European sentiment among Jordanians, other ways of showing solidarity. Basically, all civil society organizations are working on a large donation campaigns for sending the much needed supplies to Gaza with codes to open the crossing points. And in fact, just a couple of days ago, there was a big demonstration near the Egyptian embassy in Amman calling the Egyptian government to exercise yet more pressure on Israel. And there is this huge boycott campaign undergoing against international brands that showed support for Israel.

The effect of these campaigns on Jordan's economy is not clear yet. It might serve actually the national brands or it might cause another hit for the economy, which is already struggling as you know, but it's too early to say right now. The issue of children with no surviving families is also an issue of a great concern and interest for Jordanians. Everyone is asking about how to provide care for these children, how to maybe pursue an adoption processes.

But also aside from the humanitarian concern, many are pointing out to the potential of Hamas using this army of orphans and those who are most affected by the war for future recruitment and operations, which is going of course to complicate the security scene in the future. Also, we could see that there is a lot of calls in Jordan to pursue legal cases against the Israeli right-wing leaders who are inciting hate and carrying out operations in the West Bank and even against Israeli leaders who are responsible for what they see as a war crimes in Gaza. The mood in Jordan is very bleak. It's very angry toward what they see as a war crimes being committed and the world's silence and double standards when it comes to the Palestinian issue.

Nicholas Danforth: And then that brings me to my question of how is the government dealing with all this? It seems like specifically of protestors are calling on the Jordanian government to take more drastic steps than I assume they've been willing to take up to this point. What are the government's goals? How is the government dealing with this kind of public pressure?

Farah Bdour: As I said, it is important to highlight the public mood in a small country like Jordan because public opinion matters and it matters a lot, and it has the power to influence the foreign policies and shape the strategic direction of this country. So far, Jordanians are rallying around the flag, so to speak. There is a level of satisfaction and support for the efforts by taken his majesty, the king and the government. I think the speech by the king in the Cairo Peace Summit and both interviews by Queen Rania and the different interviews by our foreign minister were received very well in the Jordanian street. There is, I would say, an alignment between the people, the government, and the leadership on how they see the war. Basically everyone refuses to see the war on Gaza as a self-defense. They refuse the human shield argument, they refuse the world in capability to adopt a clear position in a humanitarian poses or stopping the war.

There is of course a divergent on how best to deal with Hamas. There's no question about that, but everyone is in alignment when it comes to the notion that "you can kill the combatant, but you can't kill the cause.” There is also an alignment when it comes to the notion that we are where we are today because of neglecting the Palestinian issue and having the illusion that this is a conflict that can be bypassed. So within this context, the official Jordan, they took number of steps. They recalled the Jordanian ambassador from Tel Aviv and conditioned the return of the Israeli ambassador to stopping the work and clearly stating Jordan's red line regarding the forced transfer of Palestinians. Jordan Prime Minister clearly stated that any transfer of Palestinians from Gaza will be a declaration of war. And just yesterday our foreign minister clearly stated that there will never be a Jordanian military presence in Gaza because as you know, there was a lot of talk about the day after, and there was a lot of scenarios that being proposed.

And one of these scenarios is a joint Arab force being there. Our foreign minister clearly said that there will never be a Jordanian military presence in Gaza, and also declared that Jordan will not engage in any scenarios for the day after. That focus is solely on Gaza. And he was very clear that this is not a time to accept partial or temporary solutions. I think that the people, all the people, they're having this fatigue of this conflict, and this is the time to deal with a Palestinian issue as a whole and address for once the root causes of this conflict. And any discussion from at least a Jordanian perspective will not take place until the war stops. Within this context, Jordan has launched an extensive diplomatic campaign that I would say sits on five pillars. I would say the first pillar is the need from the international community to establish safe corridors and safety zones inside Gaza.

It seems that the international community is receptive to that demand. Secreted, blinking statements in Amman aligned with this notion. And just yesterday I was reading that Israel is willing to implement a tactical humanitarian poses, so they are playing with terms now. The second pillar is to secure an international Arabic pressure to stop the war. Now, I think this is a very ambitious demand that I don't think it's going to be implemented anytime soon, but it was very important for Jordan to state their position toward what is going on in Gaza. And the third pillar is to stabilize the West Bank, including Jerusalem of course, as there are fears, almost certainty that the next chapter of the saga will take place there. It was after all, [foreign language 00:09:09], the flood of Al-Aqsa. So since the beginning of the war, Jordan has sent a number of eight patches for the West Bank to help the PA to deal with the consequences of the restrictions imposed on the Palestinians living in the West Bank, and also to deal with the consequences of Israeli decision to cut the taxes allocations to the pa.

So this is Jordan's way of empowering the PA and in order to stabilize the West Bank, Jordan's backyard and repeatedly stating that the PA is the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people and it is the only address for the Palestinian efforts from a Jordanian perspective. The fourth pillar, very quickly, I think Jordanians are trying to secure an international Arab Islamic position to centralize the Palestinian issue on the agenda of these countries and to prepare for the day after through adopting, as I said, a comprehensive solution, a political project on the basis of the two states solution. There are hopes for the Arab Islamic Summit, which is going to be held in Riyadh on Saturday, tomorrow, I guess, which all the countries confirmed attendance including Iran and Qatar. There are hopes and there are hopes only that the Saudis will play a critical role in forming a united position, but also adopt like a practical steps to establish, to stabilize, sorry, the situation in Gaza on the West Bank. And finally, very quickly, I think the last pillar, which I think for me as a Jordanian is the most important pillar, is securing Jordan domestic-

Nicholas Danforth: Yes. Let me ask you, that was going to be my final question, so I'm glad you brought that up. What's the challenge there?

Farah Bdour: Basically, Jordanians, since October 7th, they are stressing that Jordan represent the moderate voice of Islam. As you see Nick, the whole world is caught up in this war of narratives about self-defense, about impunity, about... And I think Jordanians are trying to say that we represent the moderate Islam. This is a narrative that is being highlighted basically in every communication by all our officials and they constantly saying and showing their unwavering commitment to the Palestinian cause. But on the side of that, they are working with the US and the NATO to secure weapons supplies that would help Jordan in securing its borders. Jordanians requested for Patriot air defense system from Washington and a sign of Jordan's fear that they might be caught in the crossfire in the war, if the war in Gaza expands across the Middle East. And there was recently a meeting with the NATO where the Secretary General assured that NATO will continue to implement the defense capacity building package for Jordan, including support for counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, and crisis management.

And as you know, Jordan is going under a lot of pressure from its eastern and northern border. Since October 20th, we have seen a buildup of Iranian-backed Iraqi military group at [foreign language 00:12:42] Kerem crossing to express solidarity with Gaza. This is what they say, that they want to express solidarity, but at the same time, these protestors set up tents and they stage a sit in demanding access to travel through Jordan to fight against Israel.

Now, in the following days, this group blocked an oil tanker trucks from crossing into Jordan saying that they will never allow an Iraqi oil to be consumed by a country that has a peace treaty with Israel. At the same time, Jordanian border security halted yet another attempt to smuggle drugs through drones from our northern border, which is, as we all know, we've been dealing with this tag on war since 2013. There are great concerns about the Iranian constant attempts to penetrate Jordan and maybe working on transferring the battlefield from Gaza and the West Bank to Jordan, where Jordanians could be targeted or foreign targets inside Jordan would be attacked. Nobody knows. But all of these are concerns that it's really consuming the Jordanian thinking right now.

Nicholas Danforth: Thank you so much for joining us on The WarCast to discuss them.

Farah Bdour: Thank you, Nick.