This is a free edition of our members-only newsletter, In Brief, where each week we ask three experts to weigh in on a key issue or event. To receive more exclusive content like this, sign up to become a War on the Rocks member today.***This weekend, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, led a mutiny against the Russian military. From Friday night into Saturday, Wagner forces managed to capture the city of Rostov and marched toward Moscow until, on Saturday night, they agreed to stand down after striking a deal with the Russian government. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Prigozhin will be banished to Belarus and charges against him will be dropped; Wagner fighters who participated in the attempted mutiny will not be prosecuted, and those who did not participate will be offered contracts with the Defense Ministry. The situation is still developing, however, and much remains unclear about the fate of the Wagner Group. We asked four experts to tell us more.Read more below.Mike Kofman Director, Russia Studies Program Center for Naval AnalysesPrigozhin’s mutiny was ultimately a desperate act of someone who was cornered, on the losing end of a Byzantine power struggle. Prigozhin likely judged that yet another dramatic act would lead Putin to rule in his favor, perhaps encouraged by backers in Moscow who had long provided him cover. Instead, he challenged the system itself, and while he could not provide a political alternative, his actions exposed the weakness of the regime.It’s important to emphasize that we still don’t know much about how this ends, what the agreement was, and whether it will stick. It remains to be seen what will happen to Prigozhin and Wagner. Putin’s latest statement suggests Wagner soldiers’ options are demobilization, absorption into the Russian military, or exile in
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This is a free edition of our members-only newsletter, In Brief, where each week we ask three experts to weigh in on a key issue or event. To receive more exclusive content like this, sign up to become a War on the Rocks member today.***This weekend, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, led a mutiny against the Russian military. From Friday night into Saturday, Wagner forces managed to capture the city of Rostov and marched toward Moscow until, on Saturday night, they agreed to stand down after striking a deal with the Russian government. According to Kremlin