Episode Notes:

Earlier this week, the Arab league voted to reinstate Syria. To tell us what this means, we’re joined by Mona Yacoubian, the Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

[:36] Implications

[1:34] Expectations from Assad

[3:48] What's next

[6:52] Turkey angle

[8:20] U.S. policy

Episode Transcript

Nicholas Danforth: My name is Nicholas Danforth and I'm an editor at War on the Rocks. You are listening to The Warcast, the members only podcast for what you need to know now.

Earlier this week, the Arab League voted to reinstate Syria. To tell us what this means we're joined today by Mona Yacoubian. Mona is Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa at the United States Institute of Peace. Welcome back to The Warcast.

Mona Yacoubian: Thanks so much, Nick.

Nicholas Danforth: So we said you were here to tell us what this means. Can you tell us what this means?

Mona Yacoubian: Well, first, I think it's part of a broader set of regional transformations that have been going on. In particular, what we're seeing I think are actors in the region seeking to exert their agency over challenges, and as some are putting it, provide Arab solutions to Arab problems. In this case, I think there's an assessment that Assad is here to stay, that he's fairly entrenched in power, and that efforts to isolate him have not really worked. And instead they're now forced to continue to contend with spillover impacts of the conflict, and in particular, I would reduce them, crudely, to two things, refugees and Captagon.

Nicholas Danforth: And so say more than what level of cooperation, what specific steps are some of these other governments expecting on those issues?

Mona Yacoubian: I think what we're seeing, the Jordanians, for example, have taken the lead in some kind of a, they call it roadmap, toward resolving the conflict. And in it they talk very specifically about the need to stave, stop, the Captagon trade. Jordan in particular is both a transit point and a destination for Captagon. And there is also concern about the need to return refugees. Jordan hosts less than a million. This is a much more significant concern for Turkey, for Lebanon. And so I think the region is seeking to sort of set up a deal where they bring Assad back into the fold, but then they're looking for his cooperation on these particular issues.

Nicholas Danforth: And I know I also want to ask about the recent Russia-Turkey-Syrian meeting. As you said, refugees are certainly something Turkey is eager to deal with. How realistic is cooperation from Assad going to be on returning refugees?

Mona Yacoubian: Look, I think it's tough. I mean, I think, well, let's take a step back. Do refugees actually want to return? That's a much bigger question. And I think by all accounts and all the data, every interview that's being done, and refugees are often polled and questioned on this, they are not comfortable returning as long as Assad is in power. And so I think the issue is less about does Assad want them back, and more about are they willing to go back? And to be honest, I think that's a primary concern for the West, which is that this wave of normalization must not result in the forceful return of refugees. And sadly, we are already seeing it. We're seeing it in Lebanon, where the Lebanese armed forces are rounding up and sending refugees, Syrian refugees, back into Syria. And of course there's a great concern about this from Turkey.

Nicholas Danforth: And so the fear is that the deal would be Assad being willing to allow the forcible return of refugees and then other countries doing it forcibly even though Assad wouldn't be guaranteeing them the kind of respect for their rights or livelihood back.

Mona Yacoubian: Exactly, and that there's sort of this guise of we're normalizing and we're going to get guarantees from Assad that you can return and the conflict is over. I think they're seeking to sort of let's put an end to this. It's been 12 years already. The region needs to move on. But of course Assad's guarantees, what are those worth? Nothing. So I think this is truly a concern.

Nicholas Danforth: On the next potential diplomatic steps, well, first let me ask, I mean, how significant is the reinstatement in the Arab League in and of itself and what might come next?

Mona Yacoubian: I think the reinstatement into the Arab League, plus the normalization with Saudi Arabia in particular, coming on the heels of several other countries over time normalizing, beginning with the Emirates as a most significant one in 2018, I think the sum total of that is somewhat of a game changer, where you're basically seeing, honestly, Assad being welcomed back into the Arab fold. And any pretense of this conflict discontinuing, there will be enduring Arab support for Syrian opposition, I think that's more or less now gone away. I mean, Qatar is an exception, but even the Qataris are kind of inching toward something akin to a normalization or at least a recognition that Assad is here to stay. The big other shoe to drop will be Turkey.

Nicholas Danforth: Well, and let's talk about that now. Right, we had a meeting the other day in Moscow. I've got to say, people who follow Turkey were all so obsessed and focused on the upcoming election that actually haven't had a chance to process this really. So very eager to hear your thoughts on that.

Mona Yacoubian: I think it's significant. I mean, this is now the most senior level meeting, Foreign Minister level meeting, of the Syrians, the Turks, fostered by the Russians, of course, and the Iranians are there. It comes on the heels of Defense Minister's meeting earlier and then quieter meetings of intelligence chiefs. All of it points to a desire, in particular, frankly driven by Turkey, as much as Assad, to normalize. And Erdogan himself has talked about this, the desire to meet Assad. What's interesting, Nick, you raised the prospect of the Turkish elections, which are coming on the 14th. This is one issue that does not divide Erdogan from the opposition. In fact, if anything, the opposition is even more strongly pushing for normalizing with Assad and returning Syrian refugees.

Nicholas Danforth: Now, you also wrote in a great piece for us a couple months ago that another dynamic at play was that with the war in Ukraine, Turkey was actually starting to get a little bit more of an upper hand over Russia in as it related to all this. Has that played out in the way the meeting the other day went, the way the rapprochement dynamic between Erdogan and Assad, which obviously is being mediated by Russia, how that has evolved?

Mona Yacoubian: I think so. What's fascinating about that dynamic, and I sort of alluded to it in the earlier question, is who's actually the biggest opposition to moving forward on this in a way is Assad, because he is demanding that Turkey withdraw from all Syrian territory. That is, I think it's safe to say, a non-starter for Ankara. And so the Russians are in this weird position. Again, I do think this is a power dynamic where the Russians probably want this in a sense, more than both the Turks and Syria. But they're not in a position to impose that solution. And I think Assad smells that he may have, I don't know about the upper hand, but he certainly has been holding pretty firm on this demand and continues to, even after this latest meeting where the statement was made that the respect for Syrian territorial integrity, something to that effect.

Nicholas Danforth: Now, one final question here. How has US policy towards this rapprochement process towards Assad's return to the Arab fold, how has it evolved?

Mona Yacoubian: Well, it's really interesting, Nick. I mean, I think, one, you can see some really somewhat stark differences between the position on the Hill, between Congress's position on this, which is quite hard line, in a bipartisan way. Both Republicans and Democrats starkly opposed to normalization and actually demanding more intense application of the Caesar sanctions and more efforts to try and stop this sort of wave of normalization.

The Biden administration, by contrast, I think has taken a more, maybe we could call it pragmatic position, where there's been a recognition, this is moving forward, this is a dynamic that has its own momentum. So at this point, they have shifted somewhat, I think, even in their public posture and said, "Well, if you're going to normalize, get something for it."

The question is what is that something? How much work is being done to shape those asks? And to what extent can the US exercise its leverage primarily, I would say, through the Caesar sanctions on these Arab countries that are normalizing, to get them to push harder for those asks. And those asks could be anything from broadening humanitarian access and sustaining it, to, frankly, making, for the Assad regime, making more progress on accounting for the disappeared and even releasing more detainees. There had been early efforts, very, very tentative efforts, at this by the Assad regime last year. Not much follow up. Can more be done on that score?

Nicholas Danforth: But so in short though, the asks that folks in Washington are pushing for are not necessarily the asks that the countries in the region that are moving ahead with this have.

Mona Yacoubian: That's exactly right. Because, of course, accountability, respect for human rights, these are not top of mind for the countries that are now engaged in normalization efforts.

Nicholas Danforth: Thank you so much for joining us on The Warcast.

Mona Yacoubian: Thank you, Nick. It's been a pleasure.