In 2024, Shaan Shaikh wrote, “Three Visions for NATO Air and Missile Defense,” where he laid out three potential scenarios NATO could take in the next few years to further its air and missile defense capabilities. Two years later, amidst alliance tensions and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, we asked Shaan to revisit his arguments.Image: Sgt. Mariah Gonzalez via DVIDSIn your 2024 article, you laid out three potential directions NATO could take in the next few years for further developing its air and missile defense capabilities. Two years later, amidst alliance tensions and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, which of the three visions you outlined appears to be actually emerging in practice? What are the primary contributing factors? My three visions for NATO air and missile defense were: (1) a NATO-led approach, possibly including common technical standards or more centralized development and deployment plans; (2) a European-led common procurement strategy, as exemplified by the German-led European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI); and (3) maintaining the federated status quo.Over the past two years, the European-led vision has advanced furthest. ESSI has grown from 22 to 24 members with the addition of Albania and Portugal in February 2025, and the program’s ability to aggregate demand and standardize contracting has catalyzed billions in new procurement for select defenses. Outside of ESSI, France and Italy have promoted the SAMP/T air defense system as a leading European option, notably beating Patriot to land Denmark as its first European Union export customer in September 2025. Other European Union initiatives, like the 150 billion euro Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program adopted in May 2025, further incentivize procurement of European-made defenses and cross-European collaboration.The European-led model has succeeded because its value proposition is clear: increased European strategic autonomy, larger economies of scale, and reduced reliance on a stretched U.S.
Members-Only Content
This article is reserved for War on the Rocks members. Join our community to unlock exclusive insights and analysis.
In 2024, Shaan Shaikh wrote, “Three Visions for NATO Air and Missile Defense,” where he laid out three potential scenarios NATO could take in the next few years to further its air and missile defense capabilities. Two years later, amidst alliance tensions and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, we asked Shaan to revisit his arguments.Image: Sgt. Mariah Gonzalez via DVIDSIn your 2024 article, you laid out three potential directions NATO could take in the next few years for further developing its air and missile defense capabilities. Two years later, amidst alliance tensions and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine
