Moscow’s “Oreshnik” strike on January 9, 2026 is best understood as strategic signaling designed to shape what NATO will and will not do. Russia’s use of nuclear-capable delivery systems in the Russo-Ukrainian War underscores a returning logic: nuclear weapons as instruments of coercion and risk manipulation, not only city destruction. RAND Europe’s 2025 scenario analysis similarly includes a coercive diplomacy pathway in which Russia might threaten or conduct a limited nuclear strike to compel political concessions or sanctions relief.The strategic implication for the Nordic countries is uncomfortable. Given Russia’s nuclear posture and the hollow nature of extended deterrence, Nordic countries … Continue reading Is it Time for a Nordic Nuke?
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Is it Time for a Nordic Nuke?
Moscow’s “Oreshnik” strike on January 9, 2026 is best understood as strategic signaling designed to shape what NATO will and will not do. Russia’s use of nuclear-capable delivery systems in the Russo-Ukrainian War underscores a returning logic: nuclear weapons as instruments of coercion and risk manipulation, not only city destruction. RAND Europe’s 2025 scenario analysis similarly includes a coercive diplomacy pathway in which Russia might threaten or conduct a limited nuclear strike to compel political concessions or sanctions relief.The strategic implication for the Nordic countries is uncomfortable. Given Russia’s nuclear posture and the hollow nature of extended deterrence, Nordic countries … Continue reading Is it Time for a Nordic Nuke?