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The Russo-Ukrainian War has elevated the global importance of the Black Sea region and demonstrated the wide-ranging impacts that conflict there can have on the world. As the sea’s littoral states struggle to cope with international, regional, and domestic challenges, we asked five experts to offer insights into what events or trends to watch in the region over the next year.Read more below.Yevgeniya Gaber Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic CouncilThe key variable shaping Black Sea dynamics next year will be the trajectory of Russia’s war in Ukraine — whether Kyiv can withstand Russia’s military assault and mounting U.S. pressure for a quick deal that could expand Russian territorial gains. The outcome of this political-military interplay will define the regional balance.The second trend to watch is escalation in the maritime domain. Since Russia’s war effort relies heavily on oil revenues and a large shadow fleet operating across the Black Sea, in late 2025, Ukrainian drones struck two sanctioned, unregistered tankers in Turkey’s exclusive economic zone that were en route to Russian ports. Russia responded with threats to target commercial vessels bound to Ukraine — with implications for food security, insurance costs, and global supply chains.Thirdly, NATO and E.U. reactions are crucial. Ukraine urges Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria to expand their trilateral demining mission to include maritime patrols, broaden domain awareness, and extend the “sky shield” over the Black Sea to protect regional seaport infrastructure and counter hybrid threats at sea. Yet, NATO allies show limited resolve and lack of action, making further escalation at sea the most likely scenario.Alper Coşkun Senior Fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace“The Black Sea is the anchor,” Turkey’s energy minister recently remarked, referring to energy security but also capturing how central the Black Sea has become to Turkish strategic