Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***RussiaIn August, Russian territorial gains in Ukraine slowed overall compared to the previous month but picked up in the last week of August, including the first-time capture of two villages in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Russia continued airstrikes, including an Aug. 28 attack on Kyiv that was one of the largest strikes since the invasion began. In late August, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries disrupted about 17 percent of refining capacity (1.1 million barrels per day), causing fuel shortages, rationing, and price surges in several regions.U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine appear to have stalled. The Kremlin has delayed a proposed meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump recently expressed frustration with Putin and the lack of progress after their Aug. 15 meeting in Alaska. While the European Union looks to the United States for sanctions against Russia that might have a significant impact, Washington reportedly has discussed energy deals with Moscow as an incentive to end the war. On Aug. 27, the United States imposed tariffs of up to 50 percent on Indian goods partly in response to India’s purchases of Russian oil. A few days later, Putin attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Beijing, where his appearances with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese leader Xi Jinping highlighted Putin’s role on the global stage.On Sept. 1, a wave of new repressive laws took effect in Russia. Among other new restrictions, key measures ban searching for “extremist materials,” sharing SIM cards or accounts, and advertising VPNs, while all new smartphones must include the surveillance messenger Max and RuStore.Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing on Sept. 3, 2025 before China’s Victory Day military
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Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***RussiaIn August, Russian territorial gains in Ukraine slowed overall compared to the previous month but picked up in the last week of August, including the first-time capture of two villages in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Russia continued airstrikes, including an Aug. 28 attack on Kyiv that was one of the largest strikes since the invasion began. In late August, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries disrupted about 17 percent of refining capacity (1.1 million barrels per day), causing fuel shortages,
