On Aug. 31, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s annual summit in Tianjin — Modi’s first trip to China in seven years. The meeting highlighted improving relations between the two countries, following a period of intensified tensions during border clashes in 2020. This renewed engagement occurs at a time of unusually high U.S.–Indian tensions, raising concerns in Washington that New Delhi might be leaning more toward China. We asked three experts to identify key indicators that might signify the direction of Indian–Chinese relations over the next few months.Read more below.Sameer Lalwani Senior Advisor at the Special Competitive Studies ProjectAfter the recent thaw in Indian–Chinese relations, several economic, military, and political events could shape the bilateral relationship’s trajectory. Indian approval of significant Chinese foreign direct investment in India’s electronics sector — perhaps even a BYD electric vehicle and battery factory — would signal New Delhi’s willingness to deepen manufacturing ties with China to offset its trade deficit. Formal border agreements — such as an “early harvest” deal for delimitation of the Sikkim–Tibet boundary — could settle portions of the disputed border and accelerate relations. The October 2024 border disengagement could also progress to the next step of “de-escalation” with further troop pullbacks from the region where tens of thousands of troops surged after the 2020 clashes. If U.S. President Donald Trump chooses to skip the Quad Leaders Summit, planned for November in New Delhi, it could presage additional openings for China. By contrast, another significant Chinese–Pakistani air or naval exercise later this year could remind New Delhi of such adversarial collusion during the May 2025 Indian–Pakistani mini war.Tanvi Madan Senior Fellow in the Center for Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings InstitutionOver the next few months, there are several signposts worth watching to gauge the direction of Chinese–Indian ties. For one, does the situation at the
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On Aug. 31, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s annual summit in Tianjin — Modi’s first trip to China in seven years. The meeting highlighted improving relations between the two countries, following a period of intensified tensions during border clashes in 2020. This renewed engagement occurs at a time of unusually high U.S.–Indian tensions, raising concerns in Washington that New Delhi might be leaning more toward China. We asked three experts to identify key indicators that might signify the direction of Indian–Chinese relations over the next few
