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In their 2022 article, “Weak States and Loose Arms: Lessons and Warnings, from Afghanistan to Ukraine,” Kerry Chávez and Ori Seed examined the issue of whose hands loose weapons and military stockpiles fall into once conflicts conclude. Three years later, we asked them to revisit their analysis in light of the conflict in Afghanistan coming to a close and the ongoing war in Ukraine.Image: U.S. NavyIn your 2022 article, “Weak States and Loose Arms: Lessons and Warnings, from Afghanistan to Ukraine,” you warned about the dangers of the spillover of weapons used in armed conflicts. Three years later, where does your assessment stand on the dangers of loose stockpiles in Ukraine? Are there other countries or conflicts at high risk of loose weapons and stockpiles?Ukraine remains at war, placing distinct demand on the weapons in theater. We speculated about possibilities upon the war’s end and based on how it ends. Still, despite extraordinary, existential pressure in a total modern war, there is some evidence of diversion to the black market. NATO weapons donated to Ukraine have made it into the hands of European drug gangs and crime syndicates. A June 2024 report described these instances as “organic, not organized,” reflecting individual instances of opportunism on a smaller scale than in Afghanistan. By September, however, the same research arm reported that organized trafficking out of Ukraine is on the rise. As talk of a peace agreement progresses, this trendline might solidify.As for other countries, the Traoré regime in Burkina Faso is armed to the teeth and appears to be losing ground against ambitious Islamists. This is another case to watch, and if necessary, mitigate with quick, competent measures to reduce unsecured stockpiles. How about in Afghanistan, four years after the U.S. military withdrawal?Our expectations were starkly confirmed in Afghanistan. The enormous, exquisite stockpiles