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Emerging Terrorist Threats and Trends

August 19, 2025
Emerging Terrorist Threats and Trends
Emerging Terrorist Threats and Trends

Emerging Terrorist Threats and Trends

Tricia Bacon, Nathaniel Powell, Aaron Y. Zelin, Amira Jadoon, and Bruce Hoffman
August 19, 2025
Terrorism threats continually evolve across time and geography, as groups adapt to counter-terrorism measures and shifting circumstances. Often, these changes unfold quietly, only to surface in sudden, unexpected attacks. Security experts and policymakers can overlook significant developments in terrorist strategies and trends. To shed light on these blind spots, we asked five experts to identify geographic areas or emerging patterns in terrorist activity that represent growing threats but receive insufficient scrutiny.Read more below.Tricia Bacon Professor at American University Author of the forthcoming book The Counterinsurgency Dilemma: Foreign Fighter Influence on Insurgencies in Afghanistan and SomaliaThe cooperation between al-Shabaab and the Houthis poses security risks to both the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. The Houthis’ provision of weapons, technology, and training to al-Shabaab is bolstering the group’s operational capacity at a time when Somalia’s government has been discredited by political infighting and the African Union mission’s future is uncertain due to funding shortages. The Houthis’ assistance is helping al-Shabaab consolidate control, re-take territory, and further destabilize areas under government control. At the same time, al-Shabaab’s smuggling and facilitation networks strengthen the Houthi threat to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. If al-Shabaab adopts a more direct operational role — a distinct possibility — the combined threat to global shipping and trade could escalate sharply. Finally, the relationship links al-Qaeda’s East African affiliate with the strongest remaining faction of the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance,” building trust and creating pathways for further cooperation between the two terrorist networks.Nathaniel Powell West Africa Analyst, Oxford AnalyticaOn July 1, al-Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin launched coordinated assaults on seven towns in southwestern Mali, including Kayes, a key commercial hub near Senegal. While Malian forces repelled the attacks and claimed heavy jihadist losses, the operation underscored Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin’s growing reach and

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Terrorism threats continually evolve across time and geography, as groups adapt to counter-terrorism measures and shifting circumstances. Often, these changes unfold quietly, only to surface in sudden, unexpected attacks. Security experts and policymakers can overlook significant developments in terrorist strategies and trends. To shed light on these blind spots, we asked five experts to identify geographic areas or emerging patterns in terrorist activity that represent growing threats but receive insufficient scrutiny.Read more below.Tricia Bacon Professor at American University Author of the forthcoming book The Counterinsurgency Dilemma: Foreign Fighter Influence on Insurgencies in Afghanistan and SomaliaThe cooperation between al-Shabaab and the

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