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A Tricky Balancing Act for Southeast Asia

August 5, 2025
A Tricky Balancing Act for Southeast Asia
A Tricky Balancing Act for Southeast Asia

A Tricky Balancing Act for Southeast Asia

Huong Le Thu, Jessica C. Liao, and Gregory Poling
August 5, 2025
Southeast Asian countries have long tried to balance relations between China and the United States — seeking to maintain their independence in economic policy and foreign relations while ensuring their country’s security. As Beijing became more assertive, particularly in the South China Sea, Southeast Asian countries had to adapt. Now, they again face the need to evolve their approach in response to the Trump administration, as it imposes tariffs and asks allies to contribute more to their own defense. Leaders also contend with domestic politics and economic conditions that are specific to their countries. We asked experts to assess how three key countries in the region — Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines — are responding to shifting policies from Beijing and Washington.Read more below.Huong Le Thu Chair of the Australia-Vietnam Policy Institute’s Advisory BoardVietnam faces new difficulties in balancing increasingly precarious relations with Beijing and Washington. Earlier assessments characterized Vietnam as a winner in the U.S.-Chinese trade war due to its flexible diplomacy based on pragmatism rather than values. Hanoi was able to make the most of the increased economic tensions between the world’s biggest powers — that was until Donald Trump returned to the White House and pursued tariff policies that indiscriminately target strategic friends and foes alike. Despite proactive negotiations, the results have been less than ideal for Hanoi, with 20 percent tariffs and a 40 percent levy for “transshipped” goods that originated in another country, such as China. This will stress Vietnam’s current economic model of production and export, which usually involves Chinese parts, and will challenge its optimistic growth projections. Hanoi will continue to invest in good relations with everyone, but it might find itself in a situation where Beijing is more receptive to its efforts than Washington.Jessica C. Liao Associate Professor of Political Science at

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Southeast Asian countries have long tried to balance relations between China and the United States — seeking to maintain their independence in economic policy and foreign relations while ensuring their country’s security. As Beijing became more assertive, particularly in the South China Sea, Southeast Asian countries had to adapt. Now, they again face the need to evolve their approach in response to the Trump administration, as it imposes tariffs and asks allies to contribute more to their own defense. Leaders also contend with domestic politics and economic conditions that are specific to their countries. We asked experts to assess how

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