In her 2023 article “How to Win Friends and Choke China’s Chip Supply,” Emily Kilcrease of the Center for a New American Security argued that multilateral cooperation was a vital component of a targeted U.S. export control strategy on advanced semiconductor chips. Two years on, we ask her to revisit her analysis in light of the revelations about Chinese advancements in artificial intelligence and the Trump administration’s tariff policy.Image: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Malachi LakeyIn your 2023 article “How to Win Friends and Choke China’s Chip Supply,” you emphasized the critical need for multilateral cooperation, particularly with the Netherlands and Japan. By early 2023, both countries implemented semiconductor export controls targeting China, although they did not explicitly name China as the target of these controls. How do you assess the effectiveness of this coalition-building effort compared to your initial expectations? What factors made the diplomatic breakthrough possible, and where do you see remaining gaps in allied coordination?Politically, the trilateral alignment on semiconductor and semiconductor manufacturing equipment (“tooling”) controls was a success. The imposition of joint controls in peacetime, outside the context of multilateral regimes, to address a China-specific issue was a significant milestone. Persistent diplomacy, extensive technical consultations, and the clear national security justification all played a role. The Biden administration also invested heavily in its alliances with Europe and Japan more broadly, including through intense cooperation on sanctions and export controls on Russia. That reservoir of goodwill is hard to measure but not trivial when it comes to cooperation on China issues.However, the trilateral agreement should be viewed as a single tactical victory in a broader strategic context. Japan and the Netherlands never matched every aspect of the U.S. controls, including in areas such as prohibiting their citizens from working in advanced Chinese fabs. The
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In her 2023 article “How to Win Friends and Choke China’s Chip Supply,” Emily Kilcrease of the Center for a New American Security argued that multilateral cooperation was a vital component of a targeted U.S. export control strategy on advanced semiconductor chips. Two years on, we ask her to revisit her analysis in light of the revelations about Chinese advancements in artificial intelligence and the Trump administration’s tariff policy.Image: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Malachi LakeyIn your 2023 article “How to Win Friends and Choke China’s Chip Supply,” you emphasized the critical need for multilateral cooperation, particularly