In his 2022 article, “New Missiles, New Risks: The Escalatory Implications of Iran’s Precision-Strike Weapons,” Jim Lamson argued that Iran’s acquisition of precision strike weapons had altered the balance of power in the Middle East. Three years on, and in the wake of several waves of ballistic missile attacks on Israel, we asked Jim to reevaluate his analysis.Note: Given the fluidity of the situation in the Middle East, this article was originally published on Wednesday, June 18, 2025.Image: Islamic Republic News AgencyIn your 2022 article, “New Missiles, New Risks: The Escalatory Implications of Iran’s Precision-Strike Weapons,” you argued that Iran’s acquisition and fielding of precision strike weapons had altered the balance of power in the Middle East. What strategic assumptions about Iranian capabilities and intentions have proven correct or incorrect in the years following this analysis?Since my article in January 2022, significant events have taken place relevant to Iranian strike weapons, most notably the current Israeli-Iranian conflict, in addition to the Iranian attacks against Israel and Israeli retaliatory actions in April and October of last year. Also, Iran conducted limited strikes against a suspected Israeli intelligence base in Iraq in 2022 and 2024 and militant groups in Syria and Pakistan in 2024. So, many important events regarding Iranian strike weapons since early 2022 have a bearing on the article. With all these examples of Iran’s use of long-range strike weapons — ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles — many of the strategic assumptions about Iranian capabilities and intentions from the article appear to remain intact, at least through June 12, 2025, prior to Israel’s preemptive attack on Iran.First, strike weapons form a critical pillar of Iran’s military strategy for deterrence, compellence, and warfighting to respond to threats and actions from its state and non-state adversaries. Second, Iran’s strike weapons
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In his 2022 article, “New Missiles, New Risks: The Escalatory Implications of Iran’s Precision-Strike Weapons,” Jim Lamson argued that Iran’s acquisition of precision strike weapons had altered the balance of power in the Middle East. Three years on, and in the wake of several waves of ballistic missile attacks on Israel, we asked Jim to reevaluate his analysis.Note: Given the fluidity of the situation in the Middle East, this article was originally published on Wednesday, June 18, 2025.Image: Islamic Republic News AgencyIn your 2022 article, “New Missiles, New Risks: The Escalatory Implications of Iran’s Precision-Strike Weapons,” you argued that Iran’s acquisition
