Several of Iran’s longstanding regional partners — Hizballah, the Assad regime, and Hamas — have been significantly weakened or collapsed. This reality is likely one factor behind the Israeli decision to strike Iran earlier this month. However, Iran still has a capable partner in Yemen’s Houthis, and it retains a degree of regional influence. Amidst a shifting regional environment — which predates the current war with Iran and will have implications well into the future — we asked four experts to assess the current state of Iran’s partners and how they fit into Iran’s broader regional strategy.Read more below. Maria Fantappie Head of the Mediterranean, Middle East, and Africa Program at Istituto Affari Internazionali in RomeIraqi paramilitary groups tied to Tehran have traditionally served as the vanguard of Iran’s deterrence strategy against the United States. Their geographic proximity to U.S. targets and bases in Iraq — along with limited oversight from successive prime ministers — allowed them to operate with relative freedom. Things changed after October 2023. The weakening of Hizballah in Lebanon and the collapse of Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria narrowed Iraqi militias’ strategic options. Striking U.S. targets on Iran’s behalf has cast them as traitors to national interests — accused of dragging Iraq into the unfolding regional war.Following the U.S. strikes on Iran, Iraqi groups are caught between retaliation and restraint. Both choices are problematic: launching attacks invites devastating military retaliation and public backlash, while remaining inactive further undermines their already fragile credibility as the Shiite vanguard opposing the U.S. presence in Iraq. Much now depends on whether Iran chooses to maintain its traditional proxy-based deterrence strategy or move beyond this doctrine.Gregory Johnsen Author of The Last Refuge: Yemen, al-Qaeda, and America’s War in Arabia and currently the Fox Senior Fellow at the Institute for Future ConflictDomestically,
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Several of Iran’s longstanding regional partners — Hizballah, the Assad regime, and Hamas — have been significantly weakened or collapsed. This reality is likely one factor behind the Israeli decision to strike Iran earlier this month. However, Iran still has a capable partner in Yemen’s Houthis, and it retains a degree of regional influence. Amidst a shifting regional environment — which predates the current war with Iran and will have implications well into the future — we asked four experts to assess the current state of Iran’s partners and how they fit into Iran’s broader regional strategy.Read more below. Maria Fantappie